Cambuur vs Vitesse: match statistics

Cambuur has strong home metrics: they win 67% of matches at their stadium, score 2.22 goals per game on average and register xG 1.89 with 16 shots and 6.5 on target, while their clean sheet failure rate at home is only 6%. Vitesse arrive in better form: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws, scored 14 goals and conceded 4, averaging 2.2 points per game. Defensively the hosts concede 1.11 goals at home versus 1.39 conceded by Vitesse away, and the xG comparison also favors Cambuur (1.89 vs 1.56). Cambuur’s poor form in the last 5 fixtures (only 1 win and 10 conceded goals) reduces their edge and increases the risk of a draw or loss. Considering the higher quality of the hosts’ chances (conversion 14% vs 12% and possession 58% vs 46%), I back a Cambuur win: 52% probability for the home side, 23% for a draw and 25% for Vitesse.

I recommend BTTS - Yes with a 70% probability: Cambuur has a seasonal BTTS rate of 74% and 80% in the last 5 matches, strongly indicating the hosts frequently participate in games with both teams scoring. Vitesse has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and 40% in the last 5 matches, but the visitors have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their last five matches while Cambuur has conceded an average of 2.0 goals over the same period — this increases the likelihood of Vitesse scoring. xG data and season balance confirm an exchange of chances: Cambuur has xG of 1.71 and scores 1.74 goals on average, while Vitesse has xG against of 1.63 and has conceded 53 goals this season, indicating open games. Additionally, the league BTTS rate is 62% with an average of 3.21 goals, and Cambuur has only a 21% clean sheet rate and 16% of matches without scoring, so the both teams to score scenario appears more likely.

The combined expected xG of both teams is about 3.09 (Cambuur 1.67 vs Vitesse 1.42); with that xG the Poisson model prices the chance of at least 2 goals at ~81% and at least 3 goals at ~60%. Season metrics confirm the attacking trend: both teams have Over 1.5 in 89% of matches, Over 2.5 is 74% for Cambuur and 61% for Vitesse (average 67.5%), while the league average for Over 2.5 is 64%. Form further favors goals — Vitesse scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 avg), Cambuur 7 goals (1.4); Cambuur averages 16.21 shots with 5.05 on target and an 11% conversion, Vitesse 13.44 shots with 5.11 on target and a 12% conversion. Combining the Poisson model (at least 2 goals ≈81%, at least 3 goals ≈60%) with seasonal and form indicators, I assess probabilities as: Over 1.5 — 84%, Over 2.5 — 63%, Over 3.5 — 39%. The best betting signal is Over 1.5 (84%), as it represents the highest probability derived from xG=3.09, the high seasonal Over 1.5 (89%) and Vitesse’s clear scoring form (2.8 goals per game).

In the first half the hosts are favored to lead: Cambuur led at the break in 53% of their home matches and scores an average of 1.05 goals in the first half, while Vitesse averages 0.61 goals at the break away from home. After the break the statistics, however, favor the visitors — Vitesse scores an average of 1.06 goals in the second half and in that period they statistically collect more points (1.72 versus the hosts’ 1.21), whereas Cambuur concedes an average of 0.79 goals after half-time. Additionally, Cambuur have both teams scoring in 74% of their season matches, which facilitates comebacks, and in their last five matches Vitesse won 60% of games and were leading at half-time in 80% of them, confirming the visitors’ good form. For these reasons I assess the most likely scenario as 1/2 (Cambuur leading at half-time, Vitesse winning Half-Time/Full-Time) and assign it a 24% probability, while 1/1 I rate at 18% and 1/X at 11%. The remaining combinations (e.g. draw at the break and an away win 13% or 2/2 at 10%) reflect Vitesse’s second-half advantage and the frequent scoring by both teams.