Cancún vs Atlante: match statistics

Cancún holds a home-field advantage and superior home defense: the hosts concede 0.71 goals per home match on average and keep a clean sheet in 43% of games, while Atlante concedes 1.14 on the road and has 36% clean sheets. Offensively Atlante has a higher season tally (55 goals vs 47 for Cancún), but in the last 5 matches Cancún scored 10 goals with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws, and Atlante scored 9 goals with 3 wins and 1 loss, indicating a similar attacking potential. The quality range of chances is comparable — average xG is 1.69 for Cancún at home versus 1.66 for Atlante away, and average shots on target are 5.5 vs 5.14, which means the hosts have a slight edge in efficiency (conversion rate 15% vs 14%). Additionally, Cancún fails to score less often (14% of matches go goalless for them vs 21% for Atlante), increasing their likelihood of finding the net in this fixture. Considering the hosts’ strong defense, comparable offensive metrics and superiority in home results (home win rate 50% vs Atlante’s 36% away wins), I favor the home victory.

Both teams show similar seasonal goal figures: Cancún averages 2.0 goals scored, Atlante 1.93, and seasonal BTTS for both teams is 50% each versus a league average BTTS of 56%. The signal is much stronger over the last 5 matches: Cancún had BTTS in 5/5 (100%), Atlante in 4/5 (80%) — BTTS occurred in 9 of the last 10 meetings involving these teams (90%). In the form of the last 5 matches both sides have been scoring and conceding: Cancún 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, Atlante 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, which favors goal exchange. xG and shot analysis shows Cancún creates many chances (xG 2.34, 21.8 shots and 8.5 on target), while Atlante has 1.66 xG away and a higher conversion 14% vs Cancún’s 9%, so the visitors can finish their opportunities. Although Cancún has better defensive numbers across the season (0.71 average conceded and 43% clean sheets at home), the regression to 1.4 conceded in the last 5 matches and the above metrics lead to selecting BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of around 75%.

I estimate Cancún will generate 1.76 xG and Atlante 1.17 xG, giving a total of 2.93 expected goals for the match. The home side scores an average of 2.0 goals per game with 2.34 xG, while the visitors record 1.93 goals and 1.66 xG; additionally, season-long Over 1.5 rates are 79% for Cancún and 86% for Atlante. In the last 5 matches Cancún had Over 2.5 in 80% of games and Atlante in 60%, which raises the probability of Over 2.5 to approximately 66%. Furthermore, Cancún registers an average of 8.5 shots on target versus Atlante’s 5.14 and concedes fewer turnovers (0.71 vs 1.14), so the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.

Statistical analysis indicates an advantage for Cancún: average xG 2.34 versus 1.66 for Atlante, average goals per match 2.00 vs 1.93 and higher average points per match 2.14 to 1.43; additionally Cancún attempts more shots (21.79 vs 13.43) and more shots on target (8.5 vs 5.14). The home side often leads at the break — across the season Cancún led in 43% of matches, and in the last 5 matches as much as 80% (4 of 5), with an average first-half goals of 1.4 vs 1.0 for the visitors. By half-time Cancún concedes on average 0.5 goals and has conceded xG of 0.67, while the seasonal first-half goals scored is 0.86, which increases the probability of maintaining the lead after the break. After 90 minutes the advantage is confirmed by xG 2.34 vs 1.66 and shots 21.79 vs 13.43, therefore the strongest scenario is Cancún leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time (1/1), which I assign a 36% probability. Alternatives are weaker: a draw at Half-Time followed by a home win (X/1) I rate at 18%, while an Atlante win after leading at the break (2/2) is around 12% — note that Atlante has 60% wins in the last 5 matches, which slightly increases the visitors’ chances.