Carabobo vs Trujillanos: match statistics

Carabobo are unbeaten at home this season: they have won 55% of their matches, drawn 45%, and suffered no defeats, while Trujillanos have lost 83% of their away fixtures and have failed to win any. The hosts average 1.91 goals at home with an xG of 1.70, whereas the visitors score just 0.83 goals away and create chances worth only 0.98 xG. The difference in match control is also clear: Carabobo average 15.91 shots and 56% possession, compared with Trujillanos’ 8.33 shots and 45% possession. The hosts concede just 0.73 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 55% of such fixtures, while the visitors allow their opponents an average of 2.5 goals. Carabobo’s last five matches have not been ideal, but a record of 2 wins compared with Trujillanos’ three defeats, combined with a decisive home advantage, points to a home win.

The BTTS - Yes scenario is not more likely because Trujillanos score only 0.83 goals per season on average, and just 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches. The visitors failed to score in 33% of their matches this season, while their BTTS rate across their last five outings was only 20%, despite Carabobo conceding an average of 1.2 goals during that period. Carabobo have a clearly stronger attacking potential, with an xG of 1.60 and 4.5 shots on target per match, compared with Trujillanos’ 0.98 xG and 2.67 shots on target. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a home goal with no response from the visitors — BTTS - No. Carabobo’s season BTTS rate is only 38%, well below the league average of 54%, while the visitors’ low attacking efficiency outweighs their weak defense, which concedes an average of 2.5 goals.

Carabobo creates clearly better chances: its average xG stands at 1.60 compared with Trujillanos’ 0.98, while the hosts also record 4.50 shots on target per match versus 2.67 for their opponents. At the same time, Trujillanos averages just 0.83 goals and has scored 3 goals in its last five matches, or 0.60 per game. Carabobo has seen Under 3.5 goals in 87% of its matches and Over 3.5 in just 13%, while the 2.5-goal line has been exceeded in only 40% and 20% of the teams’ respective last five matches. The visitors’ weak defense, conceding an average of 2.50 goals, increases the likelihood of goals for the hosts, but Trujillanos’ limited attacking output reduces the probability of an open, high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.35 goals points to a stronger likelihood of Under 3.5, which is the strongest signal in the data.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Carabobo win (X/1), as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 first-half goals. Trujillanos were trailing at half-time in 50% of their matches and have conceded an average of 0.83 goals before the interval, suggesting that the visitors may keep the score level for a long period but are vulnerable under pressure. After the break, Carabobo’s advantage should increase: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.4 second-half goals, compared with just 0.4 for Trujillanos. The hosts are also creating significantly more chances, recording an xG of 1.60 versus 0.98 for their opponents, as well as 4.5 shots on target per match compared with 2.67 for the visitors. Trujillanos’ poor overall campaign form, with a 0% win rate and an 83% defeat rate, further supports the scenario of Carabobo deciding the match only after half-time.