Caracas vs Portuguesa: match statistics

Portuguesa sit 2nd and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 games, while Caracas have earned 7 points over the same period. However, the hosts are slightly more dangerous in attack at home: they average 1.51 xG and score 1.40 goals per match, compared with Portuguesa’s 1.24 xG and 1.33 goals per away game. Caracas’ defense looks weaker, conceding 1.50 goals at home despite allowing opponents 1.64 xG, while the visitors fail to score in as many as 33% of their away matches. Portuguesa draw 42% of their away fixtures, and Caracas have shared the points in 30% of their home games, making a closely fought draw the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal is against BTTS - Yes: Caracas have a very low seasonal BTTS rate of just 25%, while as many as 58% of their matches have ended with a clean sheet. Portuguesa record BTTS in 58% of matches, but fail to score away from home in 33% of cases, which is significant against a Caracas defense conceding only 0.67 goals per game on average. The hosts score an average of 1.42 goals, while Portuguesa concede 1.33, making a Caracas goal the most likely outcome. However, the visitors’ xG of 1.24 does not provide a clear advantage against their opponents’ solid defense. BTTS landed in 80% of Caracas’ last five matches, but the figure was only 20% for Portuguesa, who conceded just 0.8 goals per game during this period. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily Portuguesa—fails to score. This supports BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Caracas has a solid defensive foundation, conceding just 0.67 goals per match on average this season and keeping a clean sheet in 58% of its games. In matches involving this team, as many as 92% ended with a maximum of three goals, while Portuguesa’s figure for the same line is also a high 67%. Both sides have moderate attacking potential: average xG stands at 1.23 for Caracas and 1.24 for Portuguesa, supporting a forecast of around 2.46 total goals rather than an open, high-scoring game with four goals. Although Caracas allowed opponents 1.80 xG across its last five appearances, Portuguesa scored only 1.2 goals per match during this period, which is why Under 3.5 has the strongest statistical backing.

Caracas has a clearly stronger full-season profile for a win: it averages 2.00 points per match compared with Portuguesa’s 1.17, wins 58% of its matches, while the visitors win only 25%. The hosts concede just 0.67 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 58% of their games, whereas Portuguesa concedes an average of 1.33 goals away from home. Caracas was leading at the break in 42% of its matches and allows opponents to score only 0.33 goals on average in the first half, supporting the prospect of a home lead after 45 minutes. Caracas’s advantage remains evident after the break: it scores an average of 0.83 goals in the second half and wins the second half in 50% of its matches, compared with just 8% for Portuguesa. The last five matches have been more favorable to the visitors, who won 60% of them, but the hosts’ long-term defensive superiority and stronger post-break performance make the 1/1 scenario the most likely HT/FT outcome.