Cardiff City vs Wrexham: match statistics

Cardiff City are showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 3.6 goals per game, while Wrexham have managed just 1 victory. The hosts have collected 2.4 points per game over this period, compared with only 0.8 for Wrexham, who have lost 3 of their last 5 outings. The difference in attacking efficiency is particularly clear, with Cardiff scoring 18 goals compared with just 3 for the visitors. Cardiff’s defense has not been flawless, conceding 11 goals in five matches, but Wrexham’s poor attacking output limits their chances of exploiting this weakness. Cardiff’s position in 6th place, compared with Wrexham’s 24th, further supports a home win.

Cardiff recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.6 goals while conceding 2.2 goals per game. Wrexham have been significantly less effective in front of goal, scoring just 3 goals in 5 appearances—an average of 0.6—while BTTS occurred in only 20% of their matches. Nevertheless, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.19 xG, while Cardiff allow opponents 1.39 xG and have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five fixtures. The hosts should maintain their excellent attacking form, but Cardiff’s defensive weaknesses give Wrexham a realistic chance of finding the net. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is marginally more likely.

The data from the last five matches clearly shows Cardiff in better form: the hosts have scored 18 goals, averaging 3.6 per game, and have won four consecutive matches. Wrexham have scored just 3 goals over the same period, averaging 0.6 per match, with a form record of three defeats and one draw in five appearances. At the same time, Cardiff’s results are clearly exceeding the quality of the chances they create, as their average xG is only 1.10, while Wrexham allow opponents an xG of 1.15. As many as 100% of Cardiff’s recent matches went Over 2.5 goals, compared with just 20% for Wrexham, so a total of 2-3 goals is the most likely outcome, giving the edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet.

The strongest scenario is Cardiff leading at the break and securing a home win, as the team has won 4 of its last 5 matches, while Wrexham have suffered 3 defeats over the same period. Cardiff have held a Half-Time lead in 75% of their recent matches and averaged 2.5 goals in the first half, clearly more than Wrexham’s 0.6. The difference is also evident across the full match: the hosts averaged 3.6 goals and 2.4 points per game, compared with 0.6 goals and 0.8 points for the visitors. The risk to the 1/1 pick is Cardiff’s weaker second-half performance, during which they conceded an average of 1.5 goals; however, Wrexham have failed to score a single goal after the break in their last five appearances.