Cartusia Kartuzy vs Lech Poznań II: match statistics

Lech Poznań II holds a clear offensive edge: the visitors average 2.07 goals on the road (63 goals this season) versus Cartusia's 1.5 goals and 38 goals overall. Lech's efficiency is reflected in a 19% conversion rate with 5.85 shots on target per match, while Cartusia manages only a 10% conversion and 5.17 shots on target; over the last 5 matches Lech has scored 15 goals compared to Cartusia's 4. Form also favors Lech: the visitors have averaged 2.0 points per match in their last 5 (3 wins), whereas the hosts have just 0.2 points (0 wins and 4 defeats). Cartusia's defense is slightly better at home (1.21 goals conceded per match versus Lech's 1.64 conceded on the road), but Lech's advantage in xG and shooting efficiency (xG_for 1.59 vs 1.46 for Cartusia) indicates the visitors are the favorites. Consequently, I expect a Lech Poznań II win, with a good chance of a multi-goal game given Lech's away average total of 3.71 goals.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Cartusia 80% and Lech II 71%, significantly above the league average of 53%, indicating frequent matches with goals at both ends. Clean sheets are rare — Cartusia 13% and Lech II 14% — and both teams have a high percentage of matches over 2.5 goals: 67% and 71%, so the fixture is typically not low-scoring. xG analysis shows Cartusia generates an average xG of 1.75 with xG against 1.22, while Lech II has xG 1.59 with xG against 1.47, yielding mutual scoring opportunities (1.75 vs 1.47 and 1.59 vs 1.22). The last 5 matches reinforce this signal: Lech II has 100% BTTS in the last 5, scoring an average of 3.0 goals (15 goals in 5 matches) and conceding 1.8, while Cartusia in the last 5 scored 4 goals (0.8 avg) and conceded 2.0; this shows Lech II will be offensively dangerous and Cartusia regularly concedes. Considering the 80% and 71% season BTTS, low 13%–14% clean sheets and Lech II’s strong trend, I assess BTTS probability at 78% (yes) vs 22% (no), therefore I recommend a 'yes' bet.

Seasonal figures point to high goal potential: Cartusia averages 2.27 goals scored and concedes 1.27 per match, while Lech II scores 2.07 and concedes 1.64, indicating a higher total in the fixture. xG supports this — Cartusia’s xG is 1.75 and Lech’s average xG conceded is 1.47, yielding an expected home xG ≈1.61; conversely Lech’s xG 1.59 and Cartusia’s xG conceded 1.22 give ≈1.41 for the visitors, totaling ≈3.02 goals. Historical Over lines also favor goals: Cartusia has 100% of matches >1.5 goals (season), Lech II 79%, and for >2.5 the rates are 67% and 71%; additionally in the last 5 matches Lech scored 15 goals (3.0 avg.), while Cartusia only 4 (0.8 avg.). Both teams have a high BTTS rate — 80% for Cartusia and 71% for Lech — and frequent results over 2.5 (season: 67% vs 71%), which reinforces a minimum two-goal scenario. Based on this, I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal with a projected total ≈3.02 goals; the 2.5 line has solid support but is less certain than 1.5.

The most likely scenario is Lech II leading at the break and winning the match (2/2) — I assign this scenario a 42% probability, because in the last 5 matches the visitors led at half-time in 4 of 5 games (80%) and averaged 1.6 goals by the break versus 0.4 for the hosts in that period. Lech II also has better overall form: 3 wins in their last 5 matches (60%) compared to Cartusia’s 0 wins (0%), which increases the probability of a full-time victory for the visitors. Second-half statistics further favor the visitors — the average second-half goals in Lech II’s matches is 2.29 compared to 2.07 for the hosts, and in 56% of the visitors’ matches more than 1.5 goals were scored in the second half, which supports a 90-minute decision in Lech’s favor. Seasonal half-time data is mixed: hosts average 1.07 goals at half-time versus 0.86 for the visitors, but the visitors still led at the break in 50% of the season’s matches compared to 43% for the hosts; the last 5 matches clearly reverse this trend. Additionally, both teams have a high percentage of matches with a goal by half-time (79% for both teams) and seasonally the hosts had both teams scoring in 80% of matches versus 71% for the visitors, which is why the alternative X/2 is priced at 24% as the second most likely scenario.