Cartusia Kartuzy vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Zawisza Bydgoszcz is the clear favorite based on the data: they have 24 wins and 71 goals this season, while Cartusia Kartuzy has 11 wins and 38 goals. Away, Zawisza averages 2.0 goals scored per match, concedes 1.0 and posts average xG of 1.7 with shot conversion 17%, whereas Cartusia at home registers 1.31 goals per match, concedes 1.13 and has xG 1.43 with a conversion rate of 8%. The last five matches’ form is decisively with the visitors: Zawisza scored 10 goals and averages 2.4 points per match (4 wins, 1 loss), while Cartusia scored only 1 goal, failed to win any of the last 5 and averages 0.4 points per match (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). The visitors control the game more (67% possession vs 50%), average 5.2 shots on target per match compared to 4.88 for the hosts, have 44% clean sheets rate on the road versus 25% for Cartusia, while Cartusia failed to score in 38% of home matches compared to 19% for Zawisza away. Considering the clear advantage in conversion (17% vs 8%), xG and recent form (10 goals and 2.4 points per match for Zawisza vs 1 goal and 0.4 points per match for Cartusia), I forecast a Zawisza victory.

I pick 'No' because Cartusia records clean sheets in 65% of home matches with a season average of 0.41 goals conceded, and in the last 5 games the hosts have scored only 1 goal total (0.2 avg). Zawisza averages 2.0 away goals this season and has scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches, so the visitors are in form, but in the last 5 matches both teams have a BTTS rate of only 20% each, which weakens the both-teams-to-score signal. Cartusia creates chances (xG 1.88 and 6.56 shots on target per game) but has low finishing efficiency (conversion 13% and no goals in the last 5 matches), reducing the likelihood the hosts will score. Season comparison shows 29% BTTS for Cartusia versus 50% for Zawisza against a league average of 52%, and the dominant factor is the high probability of a clean sheet for the hosts; therefore I assess a 30% chance of 'Yes' and 70% 'No', selecting 'No'.

Based on xG: Cartusia’s attacking xG is 1.88 while Zawisza’s defense concedes on average xG 1.18 — yielding roughly 1.53 goals for the home side; similarly Zawisza’s attacking xG of 1.70 against Cartusia’s defense conceding 1.07 gives about 1.39 goals for the visitors, total ≈2.92. Seasonal metrics confirm a tendency for goals: Cartusia had Over 1.5 in 76% of matches, Zawisza in 63%, and the league average is 2.98 goals per game; Over 2.5 occurred in 41% of home matches and 50% of away matches. In the last 5 games Cartusia scored only 1 and conceded 6, while Zawisza scored 10 and conceded 3, which increases the likelihood of visiting attacking activity; additionally Cartusia averages 16.5 shots (6.56 on target) per game, Zawisza 14.0 (5.2 on target) with conversion rates 13% vs 17%. A Poisson model with aggregate λ≈2.92 yields about 79% for Over 1.5, ~56% for Over 2.5 and ~33% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest data signal is to play Over at the 1.5 line.

Cartusia Kartuzy led at the break in 11 of 15 home matches (73%), scoring an average of 1.33 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.13, while Zawisza average 1.13 goals and concede 0.56 by half-time. The home side’s offensive xG is 1.88 versus the visitors’ 1.70, and the hosts average 6.56 shots on target compared to Zawisza’s 5.2, indicating higher-quality scoring opportunities for Cartusia. In the second half Cartusia adds on average 1.13 goals and concedes 0.27, winning 60% of second halves, whereas Zawisza average 0.88 goals and win 31% of second halves, so the hosts rarely surrender a lead at the break. Additionally, Cartusia keep a clean sheet at half-time in 87% of games and a full-match clean sheet rate of 65%, which limits the visitors’ chances of a turnaround; it should be noted, however, that in the last 5 matches the hosts have no wins (0%), which slightly reduces confidence in the projection. Given the half-time advantage (73%), higher xG and superior second-half metrics, the strongest signal is Cartusia leading at the break and winning the match (1/1).