Cavese vs Cosenza: match statistics

Cosenza is the match favorite: they sit 3rd in the table with 19 wins this season, while Cavese are 13th with 9 wins and only 35 goals scored versus Cosenza’s 57. In the last 5 matches Cosenza have scored 7 goals and average 2.0 points per game (3W, 1D, 1L), whereas Cavese have only 3 goals and 1.2 points per game (1W, 3D, 1L). Cavese’s home defense is a notable strength — the hosts concede just 0.83 goals per home game and record clean sheets in 39% of home fixtures, while Cosenza concede 1.22 goals away and keep 28% clean sheets. Chance creation quality is comparable: Cavese at home have xG 1.43 against xG conceded 1.18, and Cosenza away have xG 1.26 against xG conceded 1.41; average shots (10.5 vs 10.22) and shots on target (3.67 vs 3.5) are nearly identical, yet Cosenza’s superiority in goals scored and current form favors the visitors. Therefore I forecast a Cosenza win, but expect a tight game — probabilities roughly 50% for an away win, 30% for a draw and 20% for a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes because seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for Cavese and 61% for Cosenza (average 57%), versus a league BTTS average of 51%. xG analysis indicates expected goals around 1.49 for Cavese (xG_for_home 1.57 and xG_against_away 1.41) and 1.23 for Cosenza (xG_for_away 1.26 and xG_against_home 1.20), totaling ~2.72 goals. Although Cavese have only averaged 0.6 goals in their last 5 (Cosenza 1.4) and BTTS in L5 is 40% for Cavese (Cosenza 60%), the home side are seasonally effective at home (2.0 goals/match, 5.0 shots on target and 16% conversion), while Cosenza tend to concede xG easily (xG_against_away 1.41, seasonConcededAVG_away 1.22). Clean sheets are moderately rare — Cavese 37% and Cosenza 28% (meaning they concede in ~63% and ~72% of matches), and home over 2.5 is 63%, which further supports a both teams to score scenario. Considering the above signals I assign 'yes' 62% and 'no' 38% as a balanced forecast.

The model is based on xG and goal statistics: Cavese has xG 1.57, Cosenza concedes 1.41 xG, giving approximately 1.49 expected goals for the home side; Cosenza has xG 1.26 while Cavese concedes 1.20 xG, yielding ~1.23 goals for the away side, totaling 2.72 goals. Cavese scores on average 2.0 goals per home match and has 63% of matches over 2.5 goals, Cosenza has 44% of such games — the average indicates a moderate 54% chance of >2.5. Both teams have very high >1.5 rates: 74% (Cavese) and 72% (Cosenza), and BTTS is 53% and 61% respectively, which boosts the probability of at least two goals. Additionally Cavese averages 12.53 shots (5.0 on target) with a 16% conversion rate, and Cosenza 10.22 shots (3.5 on target) with a 10% conversion, confirming the home side’s attacking potential. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over at the 1.5 line) due to the high historical rates 74%/72% and combined xG 2.72, while the 2.5 line is moderately likely and 3.5 has low chances.

Cavese is the clear favorite: the home side win 79% of their home matches and score an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Cosenza have a 22% away win rate and score 1.06 goals on average (winPercentage_home=79.0, seasonScoredAVG_home=2.0, winPercentage_away=22.0, seasonScoredAVG_away=1.06). At half-time Cavese lead in 37% of their home matches and are level at half-time in 47%, whereas Cosenza lead at the break in only 17% of their away games (leadingAtHTPercentage_home=37.0, drawingAtHTPercentage_home=47.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_away=17.0). The hosts show superior attacking metrics: xG 1.57 versus 1.26, on average 5.0 shots on target versus 3.5 and a conversion rate of 16% versus 10% for the visitors (xg_for_avg_home=1.57, xg_for_avg_away=1.26, shotsOnTargetAVG_home=5.0, shotsOnTargetAVG_away=3.5, shot_conversion_rate_home=16.0, shot_conversion_rate_away=10.0). Cavese clearly score more after the break (8+6+13=27 goals in minutes 46–90), while Cosenza have 1+7+1=9 such goals, so the hosts are more likely to overturn a deficit or maintain a lead in the second half. On this basis the strongest signal is 1/1 (home leading at half-time and winning at full-time) with an allocation of 33%, followed by X/1 at 28% as the second most likely scenario.