Cavese vs Savoia: match statistics

Savoia come into this match unbeaten in their last five games, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Cavese have collected just 5 points during this period and lost their last two matches. The strongest argument in favor of the visitors is their improved defensive performance: they have conceded just 2 goals in their previous five games, whereas Cavese have allowed 9 goals. However, the hosts are dangerous at home, where they average 2.5 goals, register 5.5 shots on target per match and create chances worth 1.75 xG. Savoia have a lower away goals average of 1.33, but they have kept a clean sheet in as many as 67% of their away matches, which gives them a slight edge given Cavese’s poor run.

Cavese have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season and in 80% of their last five, partly due to conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Savoia, however, have shown a clearly stronger defense: they have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their league matches, while in their last five they have allowed opponents just 0.4 goals per game. The hosts score only 1.0 goal per game on average this season and, despite registering 5.33 shots on target per match, have a low 8% finishing efficiency. Savoia should create chances, as Cavese have failed to keep a single clean sheet and concede an average of 1.33 goals per game, but the visitors’ solid defensive run increases the likelihood that the hosts will fail to score. Therefore, BTTS - No has a slight edge, meaning a result in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: all of Cavese’s matches so far and 67% of Savoia’s games have featured a maximum of three goals. Savoia concede just 1.00 goal per match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their outings, which should limit the hosts despite their average of 5.33 shots on target. Cavese have defensive issues, conceding 1.33 goals on average, but Savoia score an average of 1.33 goals, so this is not a profile that suggests a very high-scoring game. The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, but Savoia conceded just 0.4 goals per game over the same period, which is why the projected total of 2.45 goals supports Under 3.5.

Savoia have shown clearly better form in their last five matches: they remain unbeaten, averaging 1.8 points per game and conceding just 0.4 goals, while Cavese have conceded 1.8 goals per match over the same period. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time: they were leading in 60% of their recent matches, did not trail in any of them, and averaged 1.0 goal scored and 0.0 conceded in the first half. Cavese were behind at the break in 60% of their recent appearances, scoring just 0.2 goals, which supports the scenario of Savoia leading after 45 minutes. The hosts do create more chances over the course of the season, with an average xG of 1.71 compared with their opponents’ 1.28 and 5.33 shots on target compared with 3.33, but their conversion rate is only 8%, while Savoia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches. Cavese have improved after the break, averaging 1.4 goals in second halves recently; however, the visitors’ defensive solidity suggests that the most likely outcome is for them to maintain their lead until full-time.