CD Castellón vs Ceuta: match statistics

League leaders CD Castellón have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 13 goals, while 21st-placed Ceuta have won just once and conceded 10 goals over the same period. At home, Castellón average 2.33 goals per match and have yet to concede, while Ceuta have lost all 3 away games, conceding an average of 3.67 goals. Castellón’s edge is also evident in chance creation: their home xG stands at 1.61, compared with Ceuta’s away xG of 0.79. The visitors average just 1.33 shots on target per away match, against 4.33 for the hosts at home, further limiting their chances of breaking down the league leaders’ defense. Although the home and away samples are small, the extent of Castellón’s advantage in results and statistics points to a home win.

The strongest signal points to Ceuta failing to score: away from home, they average 0.67 goals, generate an xG of 0.79 and register just 1.33 shots on target per match. Castellón have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, an average of 0.4 per game, further limiting the visitors’ chances. The hosts should have greater attacking potential, with a home xG of 1.91, while Ceuta concede an average of 3.67 goals away from home. Although both teams have scored in 67% of Ceuta’s away matches, their modest attacking output, combined with Castellón’s recent defensive form, makes it slightly more likely that at least one side will fail to score (BTTS - No).

Castellón have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 per game, while Ceuta have conceded 10 over the same period, an average of 2.0. The hosts average 18.5 shots and generate an xG of 1.91, indicating greater attacking potential than the visitors, who average 7.33 shots and an xG of 0.79. All matches played by the two teams so far have featured at least 2 goals, although Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Castellón's matches and 100% of Ceuta's. The projected total of 2.90 goals, combined with the discrepancy at the higher line, makes Over 1.5 the strongest signal without assuming the match must produce at least 3 goals.

CD Castellón have won their last five matches and led at the break in three of them, while Ceuta trailed at half-time twice over the same period and did not lead once. The hosts average 1.91 xG compared with the visitors’ 0.79, and their average of 5.25 shots on target per match clearly exceeds Ceuta’s 1.33. Their ability to maintain a lead is also supported by their second-half form: across their last five matches, Castellón averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded after the break, while Ceuta conceded 1.4. A half-time draw followed by a home win remains a meaningful possibility, as Castellón failed to score before the break in four of the home matches included in the data. Even so, the hosts’ five consecutive wins and three half-time leads in their last five matches make Castellón to lead at the break and win at full-time a marginally stronger choice.