CD Feirense vs FC Vizela: match statistics

FC Vizela arrives in better form: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 loss, scoring 10 goals and averaging 2.4 points per game, whereas CD Feirense in their last five have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, only 3 goals and 1.4 points per game. Over the season Vizela has scored 37 goals with 12 wins, and Feirense 31 goals and 10 wins, indicating the visitors’ offensive edge over the season. Feirense, however, concedes only 0.86 goals per home match and has clean sheets in 43% of games, while Vizela concede 1.07 on the road and record 21% clean sheets, which reduces the visitors’ chances of an easy win. Quality-of-chances analysis shows the home xG is 1.54 versus the visitors’ 1.42 xG away, but Vizela register more shots on target (4.14 vs 3.71) and have superior possession (56% vs 47%), translating into greater pressure and chance volume. Given Vizela’s clear advantage in form and finishing (10 goals and 4 wins in the last 5), alongside Feirense’s resolute home defense, I predict a narrow away victory; I assess probabilities at approximately 45% for Vizela, 30% for Feirense and 25% for a draw.

I back BTTS - Yes. Seasonally both teams have BTTS at 50% (Feirense 50%, Vizela 50%) versus a league average of 47%, so the baseline is neutral. In the last 5 matches Vizela has BTTS 60% and scored 10 goals (2.0 avg), while Feirense has BTTS 20% and scored 3 goals (0.6 avg), which favors away goals. xG also supports both teams to score: Feirense attack xG 1.61 against Vizela defense xG 1.46 yields an expected value around 1.54 for the home side, and Vizela attack xG 1.42 against Feirense defense xG 1.26 yields about 1.34 for the visitors. Additionally Feirense averages 5.0 shots on target with a conversion rate of 12%, and Vizela 4.14 shots on target at 8%; combining this with seasonal clean sheets 36% vs 21%, I estimate BTTS at 58% vs 42%.

Based on xG and goal averages I calculate 1.54 expected goals for CD Feirense (attacking xG 1.61 vs Vizela’s defense 1.46 → average 1.54) and 1.34 for FC Vizela (attacking xG 1.42 vs Feirense’s defense 1.26 → 1.34), totaling 2.88 expected goals. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurs in 79% of Feirense’s matches and 64% of Vizela’s (average 71.5%), and both teams have 50% of matches with BTTS, therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 72%. For the 2.5 line Feirense has 57% of matches above 2.5, Vizela 36% (average 46.5%), but the combined xG 2.88 is 0.47 higher than the league average 2.41 and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 was 40% for Feirense and 60% for Vizela, so I assess Over 2.5 at 55%. Seasonal values for 3.5 are 36% for Feirense and 7% for Vizela (average 21.5%), and in the last 5 matches Feirense has only 14% such games, Vizela 0%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Under 3.5 (I rate Under 3.5 at 81%).

The strongest signal points to the home side leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1): Feirense led at half-time in 36% of their home matches, scoring an average of 0.50 goals by the break versus 0.29 for Vizela. Over the full 90 minutes the home team shows greater offensive efficiency — average goals 1.64 versus 1.00 for Vizela and xG 1.61 versus 1.42, with shot conversion 12% vs 8%. After the break Feirense scores an average of 1.14 goals and Vizela 0.71, while the hosts also register more shots on target (5.0 vs 4.14), suggesting Feirense holds the advantage in the decisive phase of the match. Despite Vizela’s better recent form in the last five matches (80% wins vs 40% for Feirense), Feirense’s season-long home statistics (higher goals and xG) provide a stronger signal. Therefore I assigned the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (27%), with a significant allowance for X/1 (22%) as an alternative.