CD Mafra vs Amarante: match statistics

Mafra has a strong home profile: 62% of home matches won, averaging 1.54 goals scored and only 0.92 conceded, with home xG 1.36 versus xG against 1.07, confirming offensive efficiency and relative defensive solidity. Amarante arrive in good form — in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws, scored 7 goals in that period and have a 5-match points average of 2.2, but on the road they score only 1.00 goal on average and have as many as 38% of away matches without scoring. Mafra’s superiority in shots (10.31 vs 7.77) and shots on target (4.38 vs 2.77) and a lower percentage of matches without a goal (8% vs 38%) suggest the hosts create more high-quality chances and convert them more often (shot conversion 15% vs 13%). On the other hand Amarante’s away xG against (1.47) exceeds their own xG (1.02), which means the visitors allow better chances than their current conceded-goal figure of 0.92 indicates; this is a risk factor for the away side. Considering Mafra’s superior home efficiency and the present metrics, I forecast a home win and assess their probability at about 55%.

Indicators from the last 5 matches strongly support BTTS: Mafra has 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, while Amarante has as much as 80%, indicating both teams regularly score and concede in the short term. Seasonal indicators are more balanced — season BTTS is 50% for Mafra and 38% for Amarante, and the league BTTS level is 48%, whereas as many as 63% of league matches end in a clean sheet for one of the teams, which limits overall BTTS potential. From a chance-creation standpoint both sides generate similar xG: in the last 5 matches Mafra has xG 1.25 versus 1.11 for Amarante, and xG against is 1.31 versus 1.17; additionally average shots on target are 3.0 for Mafra and 2.77 for Amarante, indicating a realistic chance for both teams to score. The counterargument is defense — Mafra concedes an average of 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches, while Amarante only 0.8, suggesting Amarante is more likely to keep a clean sheet, although Amarante scores an average of 1.4 goals per game. Considering the strong form signal (60% vs 80%), similar xG and greater susceptibility of Mafra to conceding, I forecast BTTS - Yes at 62% and No at 38%.

Based on xG and defensive data, I project Mafra to score about 1.28 goals (home xG 1.09 vs xG conceded to Amarante 1.47) and Amarante about 1.06 goals (xG 1.02 vs xG conceded to Mafra 1.09), for a total of approximately 2.34 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.34 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈68%, Over 2.5 ≈41% and Over 3.5 ≈21%, so the strongest signal is for no more than 3.5 goals. Seasonal metrics confirm a moderate low-scoring tendency: Over 2.5 occurs in 36% of Mafra’s matches and 38% of Amarante’s (league average 39%), while Over 3.5 occurs in only 21% and 8% respectively. Additionally, Mafra averages 8.29 shots per match (3.0 on target, conversion 16%) and Amarante 7.77 shots (2.77 on target, conversion 13%), which supports moderate xG and limits the chance of 4+ goals. Therefore I recommend an Under 3.5 bet as the strongest selection (probability ≈79%), with Under 2.5 moderately favored (~59%), and Over 1.5 remaining likely (~68%) for those who prefer a lower line.

I forecast a draw at half-time and a CD Mafra win at full-time (X/1). Mafra were level at the break in 57% of matches and led at half-time in only 14%, so the HT is most likely to be a draw. After the interval the home side clearly dominate: they average 0.93 goals in the second half and ‘win’ the second half in 64% of matches, while Amarante average 0.62 goals and only 23% such performances, which increases the likelihood of a home victory after the change of ends. Additionally, Mafra earn an average of 2.21 points in the second half versus 1.23 for the visitors, and over the whole season the hosts average 2.0 points per match compared to 1.62 for Amarante, reinforcing the scenario of a turnaround from a half-time draw in Mafra’s favor. The low first-half goals averages (Mafra 0.36, Amarante 0.38) suggest we will first see a draw and then the hosts decide the outcome after the break.