CD Mafra vs União Santarém: match statistics

CD Mafra has a clear advantage in home metrics: 58% home wins, 1.5 goals per game on average, 4.33 shots on target and xG 1.36, with only 8% of matches without scoring. União Santarém away averages 0.83 goals, 3.25 shots on target, xG 1.06 and fails to score in 50% of away fixtures. Both teams are in poor form — Mafra has just 0.2 points per game in the last 5 (4 goals scored, 12 conceded, i.e. 2.4 conceded per game on average), and União 0.6 points (5 scored, 9 conceded). Despite the hosts’ recent slump, their superior home efficiency and a 50% share of clean-sheet matches give them the edge, so I forecast a Mafra win, although a draw or an away victory remain possible.

I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely (70% vs 30%) because in the last 5 matches CD Mafra have BTTS at 80% and União Santarém at 60%. Both teams have similar xG values: 1.07 for the home side and 1.06 for the visitors, with xG against of 1.21 (Mafra) and 1.31 (Santarém), indicating both create and concede chances. In the last five fixtures the hosts conceded 12 goals in total (avg. 2.4 per game) and the visitors 9 goals (avg. 1.8), which significantly increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Season metrics are mixed (season BTTS 54% for Mafra and 33% for Santarém, league 48%), so although the away side has a lower season figure, the dominant signal from recent matches and xG supports selecting BTTS - Yes.

Estimated xG gives 1.19 goals for CD Mafra ((1.07 + 1.31)/2) and 1.14 for União Santarém ((1.06 + 1.21)/2), totaling 2.33 goals. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 are 62% for the home side and 58% for the away side, while over 0.5 occurs in 92% and 83% of matches, confirming scoring consistency. In the last 5 matches the home team conceded an average of 2.4 goals (12 conceded) and the visitors 1.8 (9 conceded), and both teams have 60% of matches with over 2.5 goals, which increases the likelihood of a higher total. Although the seasonal over 2.5 rate is low (31% and 33%), given xG = 2.33 and recent runs I assign Over 2.5 a moderate probability (~42%), while Over 3.5 remains unlikely (~21%). Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (est. 68%), hence the recommendation to play Over at the 1.5 line.

Statistical analysis at half-time shows the home side led at the break in 38% of their matches, with an average goals by half of 0.54 compared to 0.25 for the away team, indicating greater home activity in the first half. Additionally, the hosts earn on average 1.54 points by half-time versus 1.33 for opponents and have a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 11%), with very similar xG (1.07 vs 1.06), so when they take the lead at the break they have an advantage in converting chances. Conversely, the away team were level at half-time in 58% of games and kept a clean sheet at the break in 83% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw at half-time; nevertheless the HT record and host efficiency incline me toward a 1/1 (Half-Time/Full-Time) scenario. One must however account for the hosts' poor form in the last five matches ('dllll') and absence of wins in that period (0% wins), so I also assign significant chances to a half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X). Consequently I attribute the highest probability to 1/1 (22%), then X/X (20%) and X/1 (13%).