CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora: match statistics
CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
CD Nacional play Estrela Amadora in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match date is 4 April 2026 at 16:30. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
CD Nacional: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Estrela Amadora: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
CD Nacional scores 1.09 and concedes 1.32 goals per match. Estrela Amadora scores 1.12 and concedes 1.65. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: CD Nacional 47%, Estrela Amadora 47%. Over 2.5: CD Nacional 41%, Estrela Amadora 53%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
CD Nacional has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.15. CD Nacional: 12.6 shots per match, Estrela Amadora: 10.8.
Match halves
CD Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.65. Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
CD Nacional: 61-75 (8 goals). Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I predict a draw (X): the hosts generate more offensive situations — on average 12.08 shots and 4 on target per home match, while Estrela averages 8.08 shots and 3.31 on target away. CD Nacional also has a higher xG in home fixtures (1.34 vs 0.93 for Estrela away) and averages 1.31 goals scored at home, indicating better chance quality. However, the hosts’ form is very poor — only 0.2 points in the last 5 matches, 0 wins and just 2 goals scored with 8 conceded, which significantly reduces their chances. The visitors have been more productive recently (1.0 point in the last 5 and 7 goals) and have a higher draw rate away (38% vs 15% for Nacional), which increases the likelihood of a shared point. Considering the hosts’ advantage in xG and shot volume, but also their catastrophic form and lack of wins in the last five, I estimate probabilities as: 35% home win, 40% draw and 25% Estrela win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| CD Nacional | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
CD Nacional is 350% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - CD Nacional · 0.4 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Nacional is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.32 goals / match - CD Nacional · 1.65 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
CD Nacional scores in 68% of matches (23 of 34 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 24% (8 of 34 matches).
Estrela Amadora scores in 56% of matches (19 of 34 matches), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 24% (8 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — CD Nacional
Over / Under — Estrela Amadora
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CD Nacional is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / match - CD Nacional · 1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CD Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 18%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
CD Nacional
Estrela Amadora
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| CD Nacional | Liga | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.41 | 2.68 | • 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | • 47% | 48% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 41% | 54% | • 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 29% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 69% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: CD Nacional 0 - 1 - 0 Estrela Amadora. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora?
The Liga NOS match finished CD Nacional 2:0 Estrela Amadora. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora?
CD Nacional score 1.09 goals per game on average and Estrela Amadora 1.12. The Liga NOS average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 47% of CD Nacional's matches and 47% of Estrela Amadora's.
What form are CD Nacional and Estrela Amadora in?
Over the last 5 games CD Nacional have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Estrela Amadora 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.