CD Tondela vs Amarante: match statistics

Amarante have clearly shown the stronger run of form: they are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while CD Tondela have won only 2 games and lost 2. The visitors scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per match, compared with Tondela’s 6 goals, indicating greater attacking consistency. Amarante’s defensive record is equally significant, conceding just 4 goals in five appearances, while the hosts allowed 7 goals. The visitors have averaged 2.2 points per match over their last five league fixtures, compared with Tondela’s 1.4, so despite the home advantage, Amarante should be given the better chance of victory. A draw remains a realistic scenario, as the visitors shared the points in 2 of their last 5 matches, but their 10:4 goal difference supports an away win.

The available data from the last 5 matches points to a slight BTTS - Yes scenario: Amarante recorded both teams scoring in 60% of their matches, compared with 40% for Tondela. The visitors scored an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Tondela conceded 1.4, which clearly strengthens their chances of finding the net. The hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals, but their xG stood at 1.40, while Amarante allowed opponents an xG of 1.62, meaning Tondela should also create enough chances. The visitors’ defense was admittedly more solid, conceding just 0.8 goals on average across their last 5 appearances, so the edge for BTTS - Yes is slight, but it remains the most likely outcome.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Tondela’s last five matches produced an average of 2.6 goals, while Amarante’s matches averaged as many as 2.8 goals. Amarante scored 2.0 goals per game during this period, whereas Tondela conceded 1.4, clearly boosting the projected goal output for the visitors. The hosts averaged 1.2 goals, while Amarante’s defense conceded 0.8, meaning Tondela also have a realistic chance of finding the net. The total projection of 2.70 goals gives a high 74% probability of exceeding two goals, although the Over/Under 2.5 line remains almost perfectly balanced, with at least three goals scored in 40% of Tondela’s matches and 60% of Amarante’s games.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Amarante win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and subsequently avoided defeat in all of them. Amarante averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded just 0.2 before half-time, while Tondela scored only 0.2 goals during this period and allowed opponents 0.6. The hosts were trailing at half-time in 40% of their last five appearances, whereas the visitors were never behind at the break. After half-time, both teams averaged 1.0 goal scored, but Amarante conceded 0.6 compared with Tondela’s 0.8, further strengthening their edge at full-time. The overall recent form also favors the visitors: 2.2 points per match, 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, compared with Tondela’s respective figures of 1.4 points, 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded.