CD Tondela vs CD Nacional: match statistics
CD Tondela vs CD Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
CD Tondela played against CD Nacional in Liga NOS (Portugal). The game was played on April 25, 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Recent form
CD Tondela has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.40 points per game. CD Nacional has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
CD Tondela scores 0.72 goals per game and allows 1.66. CD Nacional scores 1.07 and allows 1.37. Games in this league average 2.69 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 34% of CD Tondela's games and 50% of CD Nacional's. The Over 2.5 rates are 52% and 43%, compared with league averages of 47% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
CD Nacional has the higher season xG average, 1.35 to 1.13 per game. CD Tondela takes 10.2 shots per game, while CD Nacional takes 12.3.
First-half and second-half trends
CD Tondela leads at halftime in 10% of its games and scores 0.41 goals per game after halftime. CD Nacional leads at halftime in 23% and scores 0.67 after halftime.
When the teams score
CD Tondela's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (6 goals). For CD Nacional, it is minutes 61-75 (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga Portugal games average 2.69 goals. Both teams score in 47% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win — CD Nacional holds a clear advantage in efficiency and form. This season Nacional has scored 32 goals versus Tondela’s 21, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 3 goals and averaged 1.2 points per game compared to 2 goals and 0.4 points for the hosts. Nacional’s defense looks much better in the short term: the visitors conceded 4 goals in the last 5 matches, while Tondela conceded as many as 10, despite season-long averages of 1.27 goals conceded per home match for Tondela and 1.33 away for Nacional. Quality of chances favors Nacional — on average 4.33 shots on target per away match for the visitors versus 3.47 in Tondela’s home matches, visitors’ xG is 1.35 vs 1.23 for the hosts, and Tondela fail to score in 60% of home games versus 33% for Nacional. Considering these figures and Tondela’s high home draw rate (47%), I estimate the probabilities as: Nacional win 60%, draw 25%, Tondela win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict No BTTS with a 70% probability vs 30% for BTTS. Seasonally Tondela has BTTS in 47% of matches, Nacional in 53%, and the league average is 46%, giving a baseline around 50:50. However, in the last 5 matches Tondela has only 20% BTTS and scores on average 0.4 goals while conceding 2.0 per match (10 conceded total), whereas Nacional has 0% BTTS, scores 0.6 and concedes 0.8 (4 conceded total), which significantly lowers the likelihood of both teams scoring. Season xG for both teams is 1.35, but xG against is 1.62 for Tondela and 1.50 for Nacional; with similar 4.13 vs 4.33 shots on target and historical conversion 11% vs 6% it shows Tondela creates chances but fails to convert them in form. Based on these specific numbers the strongest signal from the data supports the 'No' scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project 1.40 goals for CD Tondela and 1.20 for CD Nacional, totaling approximately 2.60 goals, based on xG and seasonal averages. Both teams have identical attacking xG of 1.35, but Tondela shows higher shot conversion (11% vs 6%) with a comparable shot volume (12.2 vs 12.4), which raises the hosts' expected goals. Defenses are vulnerable: Tondela conceded 48 goals this season, Nacional 41, and Tondela has been conceding 2.0 goals on average in the last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of more goals; the share of matches with both teams scoring is 47% for Tondela and 53% for Nacional. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 67% for Tondela and 73% for Nacional, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (home >2.5 53% vs away 33% and league average 54%), while Over 3.5 appears unlikely (33%/7%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw appears likely: both teams average 0.4 goals by half-time (scoredAVGHT_home 0.4, scoredAVGHT_away 0.4) and the average first-half goals is 0.93 (AVGHT 0.93), with Tondela posting 53% half-time draws versus 40% for Nacional. After the break Tondela holds a clear advantage — on average they score 0.93 goals post-break compared to Nacional’s 0.4 (scored_2hg_avg_home 0.93 vs away 0.4) and have collected 21 points in matches with second-half goals versus 13 points for the visitors (points_2hg_home 21 vs points_2hg_away 13). Seasonally the home side scores more goals per match (1.33 vs 0.8) and converts chances better (conversion rate 11% vs 6%), despite similar attacking xG (xG_for_avg 1.35 vs 1.35), so Tondela’s advantage is expected to manifest after the interval. For these reasons I assign the highest probability to the scenario Half-Time draw and Home win at Full-Time (X/1 27%), while scenarios with Nacional leading at half-time are judged less likely due to the visitors’ lower seasonal attacking efficiency.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| CD Tondela | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
CD Nacional is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / game - CD Tondela · 1.2 pts / game - CD Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Nacional is 49% better for: goals scored per game.
0.72 goals / game - CD Tondela · 1.07 goals / game - CD Nacional
CD Nacional is 21% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.66 goals / game - CD Tondela · 1.37 goals / game - CD Nacional
CD Tondela scores in 41% of games (12 of 29 meczów), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 meczów).
CD Nacional scores in 67% of games (20 of 30 meczów), while CD Tondela keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - CD Tondela
Over / Under - CD Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CD Nacional is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / game - CD Tondela · 1.17 pts / game - CD Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CD Tondela - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 10% of games and wins 14%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
CD Nacional - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 23%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
CD Tondela
CD Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| CD Tondela | Liga | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.38 | 2.69 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 34% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 54% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 30% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 70% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from CD Tondela's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against CD Nacional. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of CD Tondela vs CD Nacional?
The Liga NOS match finished CD Tondela 0:2 CD Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before CD Tondela vs CD Nacional?
CD Tondela score 0.72 goals per game on average and CD Nacional 1.07. The Liga NOS average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 34% of CD Tondela's matches and 50% of CD Nacional's.
What form are CD Tondela and CD Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games CD Tondela have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and CD Nacional 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CD Tondela vs CD Nacional?
The statistical background for CD Tondela vs CD Nacional — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.