CDS Tampico Madero vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics

Hosts have a significant home advantage: they have won 70% of home matches, score an average of 1.65 goals and concede only 0.75 per game, with a home goal difference of +18. Visitors tend to draw frequently away (58% draws), win only 16% of away matches and average 1.05 goals scored and 1.05 conceded (GD 0 on the road). In the last 5 matches the picture favors the visitors — Tepatitlán averages 1.8 points per game (2 wins, 3 draws), 6 scored and 3 conceded, while Tampico averages 1.0 point (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), 4 scored and 6 conceded. xG and chance creation favor the hosts: hosts xG 1.49 vs guests 1.44, more shots on average (14.15 vs 11.89) and higher conversion rate (12% vs 9%), indicating better chance finishing. Considering the strong home record (40% clean sheets, only 20% of matches without a goal) and the visitors’ away tendency to draw and lack of efficiency (42% of away matches without scoring), I forecast a home win; I estimate 55% chance for Tampico, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Tepatitlán win.

The xG-based model projects expected goals: home ≈1.57 (xG_for 1.77 vs opponent xG_against 1.36), away ≈1.34 (xG_for 1.44 vs home xG_against 1.24). From these values the probability that the home side fails to score is ~21%, and that the away side fails to score is ~26%, translating to an estimated BTTS ≈58% (Goal/Goal). Counter signals: season-long data show 42% of matches without an away goal and 45% clean sheets for the home team at home, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. However, the last 5 meetings for both teams show BTTS 60%; the away side scored 6 goals and the home side conceded 6 goals in those five matches, supporting the both-teams-to-score scenario. Weighing the xG and form signals alongside a league BTTS level of 56%, I recommend BTTS - Yes (58% vs 42%).

I estimate expected goals at 1.57 for CDS Tampico Madero and 1.34 for Tepatitlán de Morelos, totaling 2.91 goals; these values come from averaging home xG 1.77 with xG against visitors 1.36 and away xG 1.44 with xG against hosts 1.24. A Poisson model with λ=2.91 yields approximately a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~56% for Over 2.5 and ~34% for Over 3.5. Seasonal figures support this: hosts score 1.6 goals on average (14.9 shots, 5.4 on target) and have 75% of matches Over 1.5, while visitors score 1.05 goals (11.89 shots, 4.74 on target) and have 58% of matches Over 1.5. Contradicting signals are: hosts have 45% clean sheets, and season Over 2.5 is only 40% for hosts and 26% for visitors, which lowers confidence for the 2.5 and 3.5 lines. Considering the combined xG 2.91, higher home shot volume and conversion, and the Poisson model output, I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

CDS Tampico Madero are clear favorites: they have won 60% of their matches this season versus only 16% for Tepatitlán and lead at the break in 40% of games (the visitors lead in 21%), so the most likely scenario is the home side leading at half-time. Their attack posts an xG of 1.77 compared to the visitors’ 1.44, they average 5.4 shots on target vs 4.74, and have a higher conversion rate of 11% vs 9%; they also score an average of 0.75 goals before the break versus 0.42 for their opponents — this supports a home goal in the first half. The hosts concede only 0.7 goals per match on average versus 1.05 conceded by the visitors, which increases the chance of holding the lead and translates into a high share of wins (hence 32% for 1/1). The visitors, however, have a 40% win rate and 60% draws in their last five matches, which gives them resilience and justifies moderate probabilities for draws and turnarounds (e.g. X/X 16% and 2/2 15%). In summary, the strongest signal is 1/1 (32%) driven by the home side’s half-time advantage and superior offensive and defensive metrics, but I have left realistic alternatives such as X/1 12%, X/X 16% and 2/2 15%.