Celta de Vigo vs Levante UD: match statistics

Celta de Vigo holds a statistical advantage and sits 6th in the table versus Levante’s 19th; this season the home side have scored 49 goals while the visitors have 41. At home Celta averages 1.53 goals and 4.35 shots on target per match, whereas Levante away manage only 1.00 goal and 3.35 shots on target, and fail to score in 41% of away matches. In terms of chance quality Celta produce xG 1.37 at home, while Levante concede xG 1.82 on the road, indicating greater susceptibility of the visitors to high-quality chances; additionally the home side’s shot conversion is 13% versus the visitors’ 10%. Defensively Celta concede 1.47 goals on average at home, and Levante concede 1.71 away, with the hosts also enjoying superior possession 52% to 42%. Although Levante have a better form run over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 2.0 points per game) than Celta (2 wins, 3 losses, 1.2 points per game), the hosts’ scoring record, ball control and lower share of matches without a goal (18% vs 41%) give Celta the edge.

Statistical analysis favors the BTTS scenario: Celta at home has BTTS 56% while Levante away is 41%, with a league BTTS average of 56%. Both teams are prone to conceding – Celta concedes 1.56 goals at home on average, Levante concedes 1.71 away, and across the season Levante have leaked 57 goals vs. Celta’s 44. Celta creates more chances with a season xG of 1.52 and averages 4.11 shots on target, while Levante concede an xG against of 1.82, giving the hosts realistic scoring opportunities. Conversely, Levante recently have xG_for 1.75 and scored 7 goals in 5 matches, and Celta in those 5 matches faced xG against 1.54 and also conceded 7 goals, so the visitors can score as well. Considering low clean sheet percentages (22% and 24%) together with the xG figures and goals conceded, I rate BTTS - Yes 64% vs No 36%.

Season-long statistics strongly favor Over 1.5 goals: Celta’s matches ended Over 1.5 in 83% of cases and Levante’s in 88%, giving an average of about an 86% chance of at least 2 goals. xG-based approach: home xG_for 1.52 versus away xG_against 1.82 yields ~1.67 goals for Celta, and Levante xG_for 1.11 versus Celta xG_against 1.58 yields ~1.35 for the visitors — combined total ~3.02 goals. Although season Over 2.5 is only 44% (Celta) and 41% (Levante), Levante’s weak defense (57 goals conceded) and the 3.02 total xG raise the probability of Over 2.5 to around 60%. The chance of Over 3.5 is lower: Over 3.5 occurs seasonally for Celta in 33% and for Levante in 24%, so I favor Under 3.5 with about a 70% edge. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (pick: Over at the 1.5 line) due to the 83%/88% seasonal rates and the expected ~3.02 goals.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Celta were level at the break in 50% of their home matches and average 0.50 goals in the first half, while Levante as the away side average 0.41 first-half goals; additionally both teams rarely score both goals in the first half (17% for Celta, 6% for Levante). After the break the statistics favor Celta — the hosts average 0.83 goals in the second half, have a positive goal difference of +1 in second halves and have accumulated 26 points in second halves (an average of 1.44 points per second-half match), whereas Levante have 13 points and average 0.76 points per match after the break. Furthermore Celta create more chances (xG 1.52 versus 1.11 and an average of 14.67 shots versus 9.88), which increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring decisive goals after the break. Based on this the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with a Celta win at full-time (X/1 — 25%), followed by draw-draw (X/X — 15%) and the hosts leading at the break and winning the match (1/1 — 13%).