Celtic vs St. Mirren: match statistics

I back the home win (Celtic) because their statistical superiority is clear — Celtic have 20 wins this season vs 7 for St. Mirren and win 73% of matches at home. Celtic’s attacking output at home is markedly higher: 2.2 goals per game on average, 20.07 shots and 7.47 shots on target, while St. Mirren average only 1.06 goals away, 11.69 shots and 3.19 shots on target. Defensively the hosts also dominate — Celtic concede 0.8 goals at home on average with average xG against 0.8, whereas St. Mirren concede 1.94 goals on the road with xG against 1.58, indicating greater vulnerability to conceding. Additionally Celtic keep clean sheets in 53% of home matches and fail to score in 7% of games, whereas St. Mirren have no clean sheets away (0%) and fail to score in 31% of away trips, which further boosts the home edge. Considering higher xG (2.36 vs 1.33), more shots on target and better recent form over the last 5 matches (Celtic: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, averaging 2.0 pts; St. Mirren: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, averaging 1.8 pts), I assess a Celtic victory as the most likely outcome.

Signals are mixed: Celtic has a seasonal BTTS at 13% at home and has kept a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, while St. Mirren has an away BTTS of 69% and 0% clean sheets on the road. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of fixtures, and during that period each averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. Looking at xG, Celtic generates 1.38 xG at home, while St. Mirren concedes 1.58 xG away; simultaneously St. Mirren creates 1.33 xG on the road against 1.39 xG conceded by Celtic at home, which suggests real chances from both sides. Additionally St. Mirren scores on average 1.06 goals away with a conversion rate of 9%, and Celtic at home scores only 0.63 goals with a 5% conversion rate, which together with St. Mirren conceding 1.94 goals away increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. For these reasons I assign a 65% probability to 'both teams to score' (BTTS - Yes) and 35% to 'No Goal', selecting the 'yes' scenario as the stronger signal.

xG analysis indicates a combined ~2.84 goals: Celtic ~1.48 goals ((1.38 + 1.58)/2) and St. Mirren ~1.36 goals ((1.33 + 1.39)/2). This 2.84 total is above the league average of 2.69 and consistent with the last 5 matches, where both teams average 1.4 goals each (2.8 total), which increases the probability of Over 1.5 goals. Seasonal stats show divergence – St. Mirren have 94% of matches >1.5 goals, Celtic 44%; share of matches >2.5 is 50% for St. Mirren and 19% for Celtic, so Over 2.5 is possible but less certain than Over 1.5. Celtic keep a clean sheet in 50% of home games, while St. Mirren record BTTS in 69% of matches, therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is OVER 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Celtic win at full-time (X/1). The home side record a draw at the break in 56% of home matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 56%) and the first half ended level in 4 of their last 5 home games (last5_drawingAtHT_overall_home = 80%, i.e. 4 of 5). St. Mirren frequently concedes after the break, particularly late in matches — 11 goals conceded in minutes 76–90 (goals_conceded_min_76_to_90_away = 11) and 94% of their away fixtures have second-half goals (over05_2hg_percentage_away = 94%), which increases the likelihood of a deciding goal after half-time. Celtic produce more on-target shots (3.88 vs 3.19) and register a home xG of 1.38 while St. Mirren’s xG against is 1.58, and the visitors’ defense concedes an average of 1.94 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 1.94), so I indicate X/1 as the strongest signal from the data.