Central Español vs Danubio: match statistics
Central Español vs Danubio: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Central Español played against Danubio in Primera División (Uruguay). The game was played on April 12, 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Recent form
Central Español has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Danubio has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Central Español scores 1.40 goals per game and allows 1.10. Danubio scores 1.20 and allows 1.30. Games in this league average 2.42 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Central Español's games and 50% of Danubio's. The Over 2.5 rates are 60% and 40%, compared with league averages of 49% for BTTS and 45% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Central Español has the higher season xG average, 1.27 to 1.21 per game. Central Español takes 9.8 shots per game, while Danubio takes 8.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Central Español leads at halftime in 10% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Danubio leads at halftime in 30% and scores 0.60 after halftime.
When the teams score
Central Español's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (5 goals). For Danubio, it is minutes 61-75 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Primera División games average 2.42 goals. Both teams score in 49% of games, and 45% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). Central Español averages 1.25 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.24, recording 4.5 shots on target and converting 14% of attempts, while Danubio away averages only 0.6 goals per match, xG 0.97 and 2.2 shots on target. Hosts concede 1.5 goals on average at home versus Danubio’s 1.8 away, and the share of matches without scoring is 40% for the visitors versus 25% for Central, which increases the hosts’ probability of capitalizing on created chances. In the last 5 fixtures Central has 2 wins and 1.4 points per game, while Danubio has 1 win and 1.0 point per game; additionally Danubio’s away goal difference is -6 compared to Central’s -1 in home matches. From these data, the hosts’ superiority in quality of chances and finishing (4.5 SoT vs 2.2, 14% conversion vs 9%) gives them a real edge in this tie.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Central Español averages 1.8 goals per match (xG 1.48) and has a season BTTS rate of 60%, rising to 80% in the last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded; avg 1.6/1.8). Danubio posts only 0.6 goals per game this season (xG 0.97) with a 40% season BTTS, but in the last 5 matches improved offensively to 1.2 goals per game and recorded BTTS in 60% of those fixtures (6 scored, 6 conceded). The xG and shot-creation gap indicates Central will generate more chances — 5.4 shots on target and 9.8 shots per match versus Danubio’s 2.2 and 7.0 — and the hosts’ higher finishing rate (18% vs 9% conversion) increases their likelihood of scoring. Conversely, Danubio concedes 1.8 goals on average this season and has only 20% clean sheets away, while Central’s last 5 matches expose defensive vulnerability (9 goals conceded), all of which favors both teams finding the net. Using the league BTTS average of 49% as baseline and factoring the offensive edge and recent form, I estimate BTTS probability at ~72% versus 28% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A model combining both teams' xG forecasts ~1.58 goals for Central Español (xG attack 1.48 vs Danubio defense 1.68) and 1.03 for Danubio (xG attack 0.97 vs Central defense 1.09), totaling ~2.61 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.61 yields ~73% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~48% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~27% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal data supports this view: both teams have 80% of matches Over 1.5, each side has 40% of matches Over 2.5, and Over 3.5 is 40% for the home side vs 20% for the away. Central Español averages 5.4 shots on target and an 18% conversion rate (avg 1.8 goals per match) versus Danubio with 2.2 shots on target and 9% conversion (0.6 goals per match), which favors the hosts to score. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I assess ~80% vs 20%), while Over 2.5 is essentially even (~48% vs 52%) and Over 3.5 has a low probability (~27% vs 73%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Central Español are the favorites: the home seasonal goals average is 1.8 versus 0.6 for Danubio, home xG is 1.48 versus 0.97 for the visitors, and average shots on target are 5.4 vs 2.2 with conversion rates of 18% vs 9%. At Half-Time the hosts score on average 0.8 goals and concede 0.2, leading at the break in 40% of matches and drawing at the break in 60% (leading at the break: 40.0%, drawing at the break: 60.0%), so HT is most often a draw or a minimal home lead. In the second half Central Español score on average 1.0 goals versus 0.2 for Danubio (second-half goals average home = 1.0, away = 0.2) and have collected 8 points after the break compared to 3 for the visitors (points after HT home = 8, away = 3), which shows a clear potential for the hosts to overturn a draw after Half-Time. On this basis the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1), which I assign a 34% probability to; alternatively 1/1 (hosts leading at HT and winning) I rate at 22%. The low probability of an away win stems from their lower xG of 0.97, poorer conversion at 9% and a seasonal conceded average of 1.8 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 1.8), therefore scenarios with an away win (2/X and 2/2) together account for about 7% probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Central Español | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Central Español is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Central Español · 1 pts / game - Danubio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Central Español is 17% better for: goals scored per game.
1.4 goals / game - Central Español · 1.2 goals / game - Danubio
Central Español is 18% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.1 goals / game - Central Español · 1.3 goals / game - Danubio
Central Español scores in 80% of games (8 of 10 meczów), while Danubio keeps a clean sheet in 30% (3 of 10 meczów).
Danubio scores in 70% of games (7 of 10 meczów), while Central Español keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Central Español
Over / Under - Danubio
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Danubio is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / game - Central Español · 1.4 pts / game - Danubio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Central Español - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 10% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Danubio - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 30%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Central Español
Danubio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Central Español | Liga | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.50 | 2.42 | • 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 45% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 29% | • 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 70% | • 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 76% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Central Español vs Danubio?
The Primera División match finished Central Español 2:2 Danubio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Central Español vs Danubio?
Central Español score 1.40 goals per game on average and Danubio 1.20. The Primera División average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Central Español's matches and 50% of Danubio's.
What form are Central Español and Danubio in?
Over the last 5 games Central Español have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Danubio 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Central Español vs Danubio?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.