Ceramica Cleopatra vs Al Ahly: match statistics

Ceramica Cleopatra has a clear home advantage: they win 70% of matches at their stadium and score on average 1.8 goals while conceding 0.9 per game. Al Ahly create more chances on the road (16.4 average shots and xG 1.82 vs 12.1 shots and xG 1.4 for the hosts), but they have a lower conversion rate — 10% versus Ceramica’s 15%. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 4 goals and have a record of 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, while Al Ahly have scored 7 goals with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses; both teams average 0.8 points from their last 5 games. Ceramica also keep 40% clean sheets at home versus Al Ahly’s 20% away and have a lower average goals conceded (0.9 vs 1.2), indicating greater defensive stability. Considering the higher home win rate, better shot efficiency and lower risk of conceding, I give Ceramica a 55% chance, 25% for a draw and 20% for an Al Ahly win.

I back BTTS - Yes because Al Ahly has a season BTTS rate of 80% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Ceramica has 50% seasonally and 60% in the last 5, which provides a strong signal for both teams to score. The seasonal percentage of matches without scoring is 20% for Ceramica and 10% for Al Ahly, so the probability that both teams score is approximately 80% × 90% ≈ 72%. Additionally, the xG of both teams is similar: Ceramica xG 1.87 versus Al Ahly 1.82, with shots on target 6.1 vs 4.6 and similar conversion rate 10%, indicating both sides create chances. Although Ceramica concedes on average 0.7 goals seasonally and has 40% clean sheets, and Al Ahly concedes 1.2 goals with 20% clean sheets, Al Ahly concedes 1.6 goals on average in the last 5 matches, which further increases the likelihood of a home goal. Based on this, I assess the final probability of BTTS at 72% for Yes and 28% for No.

Calculated expected goals: Ceramica Cleopatra’s attacking xG is 1.87 and Al Ahly’s defensive xG is 0.99, so home expected goals ≈ (1.87+0.99)/2 = 1.43; similarly visitors have attacking xG 1.82 and home defensive xG 0.86, so away expected goals ≈ 1.34, total ≈ 2.77 goals. A Poisson model with mean 2.77 yields ~76% probability for Over 1.5, 52% for Over 2.5 and 30% for Over 3.5. Season data confirm a high scoring frequency: Over 1.5 occurred in 70% of Ceramica matches and 80% of Al Ahly matches, and BTTS occurred in 50% and 80% of cases respectively. Form is mixed: in the last 5 matches Ceramica scores 0.8 goals on average with xG 1.53 (poor finishing), while Al Ahly averages 1.4 goals with xG 1.86, indicating the visitors still create more quality chances. As a result the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, over) — high 76% probability and total expected goals 2.77 favor this play, whereas Over 2.5 has only moderate support (~52%).

Seasonal statistics favor Ceramica Cleopatra: the hosts average 2.3 points per match versus 1.7 for Al Ahly, won 70% of games compared to the visitors’ 40%, and led at the break in 60% of matches, suggesting a strong start. In the first half Ceramica averages 0.9 goals against 0.8 for Al Ahly; their xG is 1.87 versus 1.82, and xG against is 0.86 vs 0.99, indicating a home advantage in creating and limiting chances from the outset. However, the visitors’ matches are active after the break — Al Ahly score on average 0.9 goals in the second half and 80% of their games have at least one goal after the break, while the overall share of matches with goals from both sides is 80% for visitors vs 50% for hosts, so there is a real risk of a turnaround. Given this, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (28%), with meaningful alternatives 1/X (11%) and X/1 (12%) and a moderate chance of an away win 2/2 (12%), hence the proposed probability distribution.