Cerro has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Cerro Largo has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 0.20 points per game.

Scoring records

Cerro scores 0.81 goals per game and allows 1.47. Cerro Largo scores 0.91 and allows 1.16. Games in this league average 2.37 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 44% of Cerro's games and 41% of Cerro Largo's. The Over 2.5 rates are 41% and 31%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 44% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Cerro Largo has the higher season xG average, 1.25 to 1.24 per game. Cerro takes 10.0 shots per game, while Cerro Largo takes 9.7.

First-half and second-half trends

Cerro leads at halftime in 16% of its games and scores 0.34 goals per game after halftime. Cerro Largo leads at halftime in 25% and scores 0.56 after halftime.

When the teams score

Cerro's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). For Cerro Largo, it is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Primera División games average 2.37 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 44% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, 5 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 2 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.

Before kickoff

1X2 odds

(2.40)

(2.92)

(2.89)

-Double chance 1X

-Double chance X2

-BTTS Yes odds

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

1.13Points per game1.03

CerroCerro Largo

0.81Goals scored / game0.91

CerroCerro Largo

1.47Goals allowed / game1.16

CerroCerro Largo

1.24xG for1.25

CerroCerro Largo

42%Average possession50%

CerroCerro Largo

3.47Shots on target / game3.31

CerroCerro Largo

22%Clean sheets25%

CerroCerro Largo

44%Both teams scored41%

CerroCerro Largo

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

10.03Shots per game9.66

CerroCerro Largo

3.47Shots on target3.31

CerroCerro Largo

8.1%Shot conversion9.4%

CerroCerro Largo

42%Possession50%

CerroCerro Largo

1.24xG for1.25

CerroCerro Largo

1.54xG against1.55

CerroCerro Largo

Shooting quality

Cerro: BalancedCerro Largo: Balanced

	Cerro	Cerro Largo
Accuracy (shots on target)	35%	34%
Chance quality (xG per shot)	0.12	0.13
Finishing (goals per shot on target)	0.23	0.27

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Cerro is 600% better for: last-5 form.

1.4 pts / game - Cerro · 0.2 pts / game - Cerro Largo

Cerro

WLDLW

Season result split

31% W19% D50% L

Season (W-D-L)

10-6-16

1.13 pts / game · goal difference -21

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-1-2

1.40 pts / game

Record at home (W-D-L)

6-3-6

Last 5 at home

3-0-2

WWWLL

Last 5 games - averages

Goals scored: 1.4Goals conceded: 1.4xG: 1.32Opponent xG: 1.31BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Cerro Largo

DLLLL

No win in the last 5 games

Season result split

25% W28% D47% L

Season (W-D-L)

8-9-15

1.03 pts / game · goal difference -8

Last 5 (W-D-L)

0-1-4

0.20 pts / game

Record away (W-D-L)

4-3-9

Last 5 away

0-1-4

LDLLL

Last 5 games - averages

Goals scored: 0.2Goals conceded: 1.4xG: 1.23Opponent xG: 1.32BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 20%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Cerro Largo is 12% better for: goals scored per game.

0.81 goals / game - Cerro · 0.91 goals / game - Cerro Largo

Cerro Largo is 27% better for: goals allowed per game.

1.47 goals / game - Cerro · 1.16 goals / game - Cerro Largo

Cerro scoring profile: strong

Cerro scores in 63% of games (20 of 32 games), while Cerro Largo keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 games).

Cerro Largo scoring profile: strong

Cerro Largo scores in 59% of games (19 of 32 games), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 games).

26Goals scored (season)29

CerroCerro Largo

47Goals conceded (season)37

CerroCerro Largo

2.28Average goals per game2.06

CerroCerro Largo

7Goals scored (last 5)1

CerroCerro Largo

7Goals conceded (last 5)7

CerroCerro Largo

Cerro

22%

Clean sheets7 of 32 games

38%

No goal12 of 32 games

Cerro Largo

25%

Clean sheets8 of 32 games

41%

No goal13 of 32 games

How often they score at least...

63%1 goal59%

CerroCerro Largo

13%2 goals22%

CerroCerro Largo

6%3 goals9%

CerroCerro Largo

0%4 goals0%

CerroCerro Largo

How often they concede at least...

78%1 goal75%

CerroCerro Largo

38%2 goals31%

CerroCerro Largo

22%3 goals9%

CerroCerro Largo

9%4 goals0%

CerroCerro Largo

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

44%

Cerro - BTTS14 of 32 games

41%

Cerro Largo - BTTS13 of 32 games

51%

League average

Goal patterns

28%BTTS at half-time9%

CerroCerro Largo

0%BTTS in both halves3%

CerroCerro Largo

9%Scored in both halves13%

CerroCerro Largo

BTTS and goal count

28%Min. 3 goals and BTTS22%

CerroCerro Largo

13%Min. 3 goals without BTTS9%

CerroCerro Largo

60%BTTS - last 520%

CerroCerro Largo

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

97%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)94%

CerroCerro Largo

63%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)66%

CerroCerro Largo

41%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)31%

CerroCerro Largo

22%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)13%

CerroCerro Largo

6%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)3%

CerroCerro Largo

Over / Under - Cerro

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 97%Under 3%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 63%Under 37%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 41%Under 59%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 22%Under 78%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 6%Under 94%

Over / Under - Cerro Largo

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 94%Under 6%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 66%Under 34%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 31%Under 69%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 13%Under 87%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 3%Under 97%

1st half

63%Min. 1 goal before half-time72%

CerroCerro Largo

38%Min. 2 goals before half-time13%

CerroCerro Largo

9%Min. 3 goals before half-time3%

CerroCerro Largo

2nd half

75%Min. 1 goal after half-time75%

CerroCerro Largo

31%Min. 2 goals after half-time28%

CerroCerro Largo

6%Min. 3 goals after half-time13%

CerroCerro Largo

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Cerro Largo is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.03 pts / game - Cerro · 1.09 pts / game - Cerro Largo

Cerro - half-time state

16% leading56% draw28% trailing

Cerro Largo - half-time state

25% leading34% draw41% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.03Points per game (1st half)1.09

CerroCerro Largo

0.47Goals scored (1st half)0.34

CerroCerro Largo

0.63Goals conceded (1st half)0.53

CerroCerro Largo

1.09Average goals (1st half)0.88

CerroCerro Largo

53%Clean sheet before half-time53%

CerroCerro Largo

56%No goal before half-time66%

CerroCerro Largo

After half-time (2nd half)

0.91Points per game (2nd half)1.22

CerroCerro Largo

0.34Goals scored (2nd half)0.56

CerroCerro Largo

0.84Goals conceded (2nd half)0.63

CerroCerro Largo

1.19Average goals (2nd half)1.19

CerroCerro Largo

41%Clean sheet after half-time53%

CerroCerro Largo

72%No goal after half-time63%

CerroCerro Largo

Cerro - second-half results

19% W34% D47% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-5

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

-16

Goal difference (2nd half)

1.03

PPG before half-time

Lead holding194%

Leads at halftime in 16% of games and wins 31%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.2

Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Cerro Largo - second-half results

31% W28% D41% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-6

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

-2

Goal difference (2nd half)

1.09

PPG before half-time

Lead holding100%

Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Cerro - last 5 games by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per game	1.00	1.20
Goals scored / game	0.6	0.8
Goals allowed / game	0.8	0.6
Average goals per game	1.4	1.4
1 goal	80%	60%
2 goals	60%	40%
3 goals	0%	20%
Clean sheet	40%	40%
No goal	60%	60%
Goal difference	-1	+1

Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing

2nd half: 20% won - 60% draw - 20% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 3

Cerro Largo - last 5 games by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per game	0.40	0.40
Goals scored / game	0.2	0.0
Goals allowed / game	0.8	0.6
Average goals per game	1.0	0.6
1 goal	60%	60%
2 goals	20%	0%
3 goals	20%	0%
Clean sheet	40%	40%
No goal	80%	100%
Goal difference	-3	-3

Half-time: 0% leading - 40% draw - 60% trailing

2nd half: 0% won - 40% draw - 60% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 1

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Cerro

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.

Cerro Largo

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.17

Estimated goals

attack vs. opponent defense

1.0 : 1.2

Estimated goal split

home : away

92%

Pace vs league

100% = league average

43%

Both teams scored (BTTS)

average from both teams' seasons

-26%

Derby effect

H2H goals vs typical matches

37%

BTTS estimate

from both teams' scoring frequency

16%

0:0 risk

about 1 in 6 matches

0-1

Most common goal range

attack vs. defense for both teams

Cerro

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

-0.30

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

-0.36

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

+13.5 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

-0.43

Defensive efficiency

Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.

+0.07

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

62%

Defense vs. league

Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.

137%

Form trend

Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.

+0.27

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

-0.1

Late goals

38% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 23% come in the first quarter-hour.

38%

Cerro Largo

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

-0.30

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

+0.05

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

-3.5 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

-0.34

Defensive efficiency

Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.

+0.39

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

85%

Defense vs. league

Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.

89%

Form trend

Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.

-0.83

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

+0.2

Late goals

38% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 7% come in the first quarter-hour.

38%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).

Teams vs league

	Cerro	Liga	Cerro Largo
Average goals per game	• 2.28	2.37	▼ 2.06
Both teams scored	▼ 44%	51%	▼ 41%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▼ 41%	44%	▼ 31%
Clean sheets	▼ 22%	29%	▼ 25%
Goal before half-time	▼ 63%	67%	▲ 72%
Goal after half-time	▲ 75%	73%	▲ 75%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.37

Average goals per game

51%

Both teams scored

44%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

29%

Clean sheets

1.30

Home goals / game

1.07

Away goals / game

+21%

Home attack advantage

+18%

Home defensive advantage

+8%

Total home advantage

Goals in 1st half (whole league)

67%

1 goal

31%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals in 2nd half (whole league)

73%

1 goal

37%

2 goals

13%

3 goals

4 goals

Head-to-head

Record from Cerro's perspective: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses against Cerro Largo. Games average 1.60 goals, and both teams scored in 40% of them.

Club Atlético Cerro

0 : 109/07/2025

Cerro Largo Fútbol Club

Club Atlético Cerro

2 : 106/19/2025

Cerro Largo Fútbol Club

0 : 003/17/2025

Club Atlético Cerro

FAQ

When do Cerro and Cerro Largo play?

Cerro face Cerro Largo on October 16, 2026 in Primera División at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Cerro Largo?

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Cerro won 1, Cerro Largo won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

Cerro score 0.81 goals per game on average and Cerro Largo 0.91. The Primera División average is 2.37 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Cerro's matches and 41% of Cerro Largo's.

What form are Cerro and Cerro Largo in?

Over the last 5 games Cerro have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cerro Largo 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

The statistical background for Cerro vs Cerro Largo — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.