Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Huayi: match statistics

I back Changchun Yatai to win (1). Changchun has 4 wins this season versus Dalian Huayi’s 2, and at home they have scored 14 goals this season while Dalian have 10 goals overall, giving the hosts an advantage in goal output. In the last 5 matches Changchun scored 7 goals compared to Dalian’s 3; hosts average 3.75 shots on target per home game versus 3.0 for the visitors, although the visitors’ finishing efficiency is higher (15% vs 11%). Changchun’s defense is unstable — they concede an average of 1.75 goals per home game and 12 goals in the last 5 matches, whereas Dalian concede 1.25 on average away and 6 goals in their last 5, which suggests a match likely to produce goals. Considering the hosts’ lower share of clean-sheet games (25% vs 50%) and higher average points in the last 5 matches (1.0 vs 0.6), I give Changchun a moderate edge.

I back BTTS - Yes 70% vs No 30% because the home signal is very strong (Changchun has seasonal BTTS 80% and 80% in the last 5). Changchun has conceded an average of 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches (12 conceded) and concedes 1.2 goals per game seasonally, which significantly increases opponents' scoring probability. Dalian has seasonal BTTS 50% and has recorded no clean sheets (0%); they score 1.25 goals seasonally, though only 0.6 in the last 5, so the away attack is in weaker form but still capable of scoring. xG and shot metrics support BTTS: Changchun xG_for 1.49 with 12.8 shots and 3.8 on target, while Dalian has xG_against 1.56 and a shot conversion of 15%, meaning the visitors have a realistic chance to score when chances arise. In summary, a high home BTTS 80% and Dalian’s lack of clean sheets (0%) provide a stronger signal for Both Teams To Score.

The xG model combines Changchun’s attacking xG of 1.49 with Dalian’s defensive xG of 1.56, yielding an expected 1.53 goals for the home side, while Dalian’s attacking xG of 1.19 vs Changchun’s defense of 1.19 gives an expected 1.19 for the away side — a total of ~2.72 goals. With that mean, a Poisson distribution implies roughly a 75% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~51% for 3+ (Over 2.5) and ~29% for 4+ (Over 3.5). The stats corroborate this signal: Changchun averages 12.8 shots and 3.8 on target per game versus Dalian’s 8.25/3.0, and season Over 1.5 rates are 80% for the home team and 50% for the away. In the last 5 matches Changchun has been involved in 19 goals (3.8 per game) while Dalian has 9 goals in five (1.8 per game), reinforcing the expectation of at least 2 goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — it has the highest probability (~75%) and is supported by both xG and shot volume as well as the high home Over 1.5 share.

First-half statistics suggest a draw or a narrow away lead at the break: hosts were level at half-time in 80% of matches and average 0.6 goals in the first half, while visitors led at the break in 50% of fixtures and average 1.0 first-half goals. In the second half the hosts, however, have the edge in scoring (0.4 goals after the break versus 0.25 for the visitors) and collected 6 points in second halves compared to 3 points for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of a comeback to draw. At match level the metrics favor the away team: on average 1.5 points per match for the visitors versus 0.8 for the hosts, shot conversion 15% vs 8% and a higher win rate (50% vs 0%), despite the hosts generating higher xG (1.49 vs 1.19). For this reason the most likely scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time: draw at half-time and away win (X/2), which I assign 35%; alternatives are an away lead from the start and held through to full-time (2/2 18%) or draw at half-time and draw at full-time (X/X 15%).