Changchun Yatai vs Dongguan United: match statistics

Changchun Yatai have a clearly better record this season: they have won 7 matches, compared with just 2 for Dongguan United, who sit 16th in the table. Both teams are in poor recent form, but the hosts have collected 4 points from their last five matches, compared with just 1 point for Dongguan, who lost 4 of those games. Changchun’s ability to create chances at home should be an advantage: their average xG is 1.24, while opponents allow an xG of 1.88 on the road. Dongguan score an average of 1.44 goals away from home, but manage just 3.33 shots on target per match and fail to score in 22% of their away fixtures. The hosts do concede as many as 2 goals per game at home, so a draw or a goal for the visitors is a realistic possibility. However, Dongguan’s lower possession (41% compared with 47%) and their run of 4 defeats in 5 matches ultimately support a Changchun victory.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: BTTS occurred in 100% of Changchun Yatai’s last five matches and in 80% of Dongguan United’s. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match, while the visitors conceded 2.0, significantly increasing the chances of either side finding the net. Changchun have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season, whereas Dongguan have kept one in only 22% of their games. Although the hosts score just 0.7 goals per match on average this season, they create an average of 1.48 xG and register 4.4 shots on target, while the visitors’ weak defense allows an average of 1.88 xG. Dongguan score an average of 1.44 goals this season, so with the hosts conceding 2.2 goals per match, the BTTS - Yes scenario is more likely.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals were scored in 90% of Changchun Yatai’s matches and 78% of Dongguan United’s games. In their last five appearances, the hosts conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while the visitors conceded 2.0, with both teams exceeding 2.5 goals in 100% and 60% of those matches, respectively. Changchun have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season, while Dongguan have scored in 78% of their games, which clearly increases the likelihood of an away contribution. The hosts create an average of 1.48 xG and register 4.4 shots on target per match, while Dongguan’s defense allows an average of 1.88 xG. The projected total of 2.80 goals also supports Over 2.5, but the 1.5 line offers a clearly stronger safety margin.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Changchun were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their matches, while both teams recorded this outcome in 40% of their last five games. The hosts score just 0.2 goals per match before the break, compared with Dongguan’s 0.56, but over their five most recent appearances these figures fell to 0.4 and 0.2 respectively, reducing the likelihood of either side establishing a clear early advantage. After the break, Dongguan have a clearly stronger profile: they average 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded, whereas Changchun score 0.5 and allow opponents 1.2 goals. The visitors won the second half in 44% of their matches and averaged 1.67 points in those periods, compared with Changchun’s 20% win rate and 0.8 points. Although the hosts create more chances according to xG, 1.48 compared with 1.10, their shot-conversion rate is only 5%, while Dongguan’s stands at 16%. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and an away win at the final whistle (X/2).