Chapecoense vs Remo: match statistics

I expect a draw: Remo has better form over the last five matches (avg. 2.0 points per game and 3 wins), but Chapecoense creates more chances at home (avg. 15.75 shots, 4.13 on target per game and xG 1.56) and scores an avg. 1.38 goals per home game. Chapecoense has scored 14 goals this season and 5 in the last 5 matches, while Remo has 16 goals this season and 8 in the last 5, yet only 0.88 goals avg. away and failed to score in 63% of their away matches. Both defenses are vulnerable: Chapecoense concedes 2.13 goals per home game, Remo 2.00 away, and average xG against is 1.62 vs 1.59, indicating an open game with goals at both ends. The hosts have a higher shot conversion (9% vs 7%) and more shots per game, but 50% of their home matches end in draws and Chapecoense has averaged just 0.8 points in the last five matches, which offsets the home advantage. Therefore I assign the highest probability to a draw: draw 45%, home win 30%, away win 25%.

In my assessment, Both Teams To Score (BTTS: YES) is more likely — Chapecoense have a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% versus Remo’s 38%, giving a clear home advantage in matches with both teams scoring (71% vs 38%). Chapecoense have recorded 0% clean sheets this season and concede an average of 1.29 goals per match, while Remo concede an average of 2.00 goals on the road; additionally, xG against is approximately 1.56 for Chapecoense and 1.59 for Remo, indicating numerous goal-scoring opportunities on both sides. As a counterpoint, Remo have failed to score in 63% of their season’s matches; however, their recent form over the last 5 matches shows a shift — Remo have 80% BTTS and average 1.6 goals in the last 5, while Chapecoense have 60% BTTS and average 1.0 goal in the last 5. Furthermore, the hosts register more shots on target (avg 4.86 vs 3.63) and have higher attacking xG (1.45 vs 1.30), increasing the likelihood of at least one Chapecoense goal even when Remo struggle. Considering the season BTTS rates of 71% vs 38%, the hosts’ lack of clean sheets, and the league average BTTS of 57%, I favor the YES scenario and estimate the probability of BTTS at 66% vs 34% for NO.

The forecast is xG-based: Chapecoense’s xG for scoring is 1.45 and xG conceded against Remo is 1.59, yielding an expected 1.52 goals for the home side; similarly Remo’s xG is 1.30 and xG conceded to Chapecoense is 1.56, translating to 1.43 goals for the away side, expected total = 2.95 goals. With an expected total of 2.95, I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 goals (>=2) at ~80% and Over 2.5 goals (>=3) at ~57% (Poisson distribution estimate). Seasonal indicators further support Over 1.5: Chapecoense have 86% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Remo 75%, and the league average goals is 2.63; both teams attempt a high number of shots (13.71 and 12.5) with shots on target 4.86 vs 3.63. Form over the last 5 matches shows Remo scored 8 goals in 5 (1.6 avg) vs Chapecoense 5 goals (1.0 avg), which increases the chance of at least 2 goals in the match. Therefore the best and most reliable option is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~57%), while Over 3.5 has lower value (~35%) and is not a priority.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). This is supported by the high incidence of half-time draws: hosts are level at the break in 57% of matches and visitors in 50%, while hosts lead at the break in only 14% of cases and visitors in 0%. The full-time outcome also favors a draw — Chapecoense records 57% draws at home with only 14% wins — and xG indicates an even contest (1.45 versus 1.30) with a relatively small difference in shots on target (4.86 versus 3.63). Additionally, hosts score on average 0.71 goals by half-time versus 0.38 for visitors, and visitors concede on average 1.13 goals after the break, which promotes balanced results; therefore I assigned X/X the highest probability (44%).