Charleston Battery vs Detroit City FC: match statistics

Charleston Battery score an average of 2.5 goals per home match, have an xG of 2.04 and average 7 shots on target, translating to 12 goals this season and 10 goals in the last 5 matches. Detroit City score only 0.6 goals per away match, have an xG of 1.38, 3.2 shots on target and as many as 40% of matches without scoring, while their away goal difference stands at -3. Defensively the hosts concede 1.0 goal at home on average with xG against 0.97, whereas the visitors concede 1.2 goals away with xG against 1.4, so Charleston allows fewer high-quality chances. Although Detroit are higher in the table (4th vs 15th), the hosts have 3 wins in the last 5 matches and very strong home efficiency (Home Win% 75% and Home Loss% 0%), while the visitors are weaker away (Away Win% 0% and Away Loss% 60%). Considering Charleston’s advantage in xG (2.04 vs 1.38), shots on target (7 vs 3.2) and clean-sheet rate (0% vs 40% of matches without a goal), I predict a home win.

Charleston at home averages 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with a 60% clean sheet rate this season, which strongly favors No Goal from visitors. Detroit away scores 0.6 on average, records 3.2 shots on target and a conversion rate of only 5%, so their realistic chance of scoring is low despite created chances. xG is 1.56 for Charleston versus 1.38 for Detroit, while xG against is 1.03 (Charleston) and 1.40 (Detroit), indicating mixed signals in chance creation but Detroit’s poor finishing reduces the likelihood of a goal. In the last 5 matches BTTS for the home side occurred only 20% versus 60% for Detroit, and Charleston in that period averaged 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, therefore I ultimately assign a higher probability to the No (no BTTS) scenario.

Charleston has a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.8 with xG 1.56, while Detroit scores only 0.6 goals per game despite xG 1.38; additionally Detroit concedes 1.2 goals per game on average, which favors a higher total for Charleston. In the last 5 matches Charleston averages 2.0 goals and 80% of games with Over 2.5 goals, while Detroit in its last 5 matches averages 1.2 goals and 60% of games Over 2.5, which together increases the probability of the over. Considering shot conversion rates of 13% for Charleston versus 5% for Detroit and the xG comparison (1.56 vs 1.38) I estimate expected goals at 1.65 for Charleston and 0.95 for Detroit (total 2.60). As a result the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (approx. 68% probability); Over 1.5 is very likely (~85%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (~22%).

Statistical analysis indicates the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 48% probability. Charleston led at the break in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and were level at half-time in 3 of 5 (60%), and they score an average of 0.8 goals before the interval versus 0.0 for Detroit, which favors a draw in the first half. The home side win 100% of their home matches, average 1.8 goals scored at home and concede 0.4, with xG of 1.56 versus 1.38 for the visitors; additionally they record more shots on target (4.4 vs 3.2) and better conversion rate (13% vs 5%), supporting a final victory for the hosts. In second halves Charleston won 80% of the time and scored an average of 1.0 goals while conceding 0.2, which is why I increased the probability for X/1 (48%) and 1/1 (36%), whereas scenarios beginning with the visitors leading at the break were given 0% due to the absence of such half-time performances.