Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine: match statistics

Charlotte Independence sit 2nd, while Portland Hearts of Pine are only 13th, with season records of 13 wins in 21 matches and 5 in 22, respectively. The hosts win 91% of their home games, score an average of 2.55 goals, and have failed to score in none of their matches, whereas the visitors win just 17% of their away games and concede an average of 2.00 goals. Charlotte also hold a clear edge in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.97 compared with Portland’s 1.22, while shots on target average 6.45 versus 3.58 per game. Portland have won none of their last five matches, scoring just 6 goals and conceding 9, while Charlotte have recorded 3 wins and scored 10 goals during the same period. Portland’s high away xG conceded, reaching 2.13, combined with the visitors’ mere 8% clean-sheet rate, provides a strong basis for backing a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS has occurred in 80% of Charlotte Independence matches and 75% of Portland Hearts of Pine games this season, compared with the league average of 57%. Charlotte scores an average of 1.50 goals, while Portland averages 1.42, with the visitors conceding as many as 2.00 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in only 8% of games. The hosts also rarely prevent their opponents from scoring, recording clean sheets in just 10% of matches, while Portland produces an average xG of 1.22. Recent form further supports the BTTS scenario: Charlotte scored 12 goals in five matches, while Portland conceded 9, with their average xG against standing at a high 2.37. Although the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, both defenses regularly allow opponents to create chances, making it more likely that each side will score at least once.

Charlotte have averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while Portland have conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period. The hosts create an average of 1.70 xG, whereas the visitors’ defense allows opponents 2.13 xG, clearly strengthening the goal-scoring outlook for Charlotte. At least 2 goals were scored in 90% of the hosts’ matches and 83% of Portland’s games, while both teams very rarely keep a clean sheet: in just 10% and 8% of their respective appearances. Additionally, both teams scored in 80% and 75% of their matches, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest pick, although the Over 2.5 line also has positive indicators.

The strongest scenario is Charlotte Independence leading at the break and holding on to win, as the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Portland have failed to win any and have averaged just 0.6 points per game. In their last five matches, Charlotte have scored an average of 1.6 goals before half-time while conceding just 0.4, whereas Portland have averaged only 0.25 first-half goals and have been trailing at the break in 50% of their matches. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.70 compared with 1.22 for the visitors, while Portland allow opponents an xG of 2.13. After the break, the visitors concede an average of 1.55 goals, while Charlotte score 1.0, further strengthening the likelihood that the hosts’ initial lead will be defended or extended.