Charlton Athletic vs Derby County: match statistics

Charlton Athletic have a clearly stronger record over their last five matches: they have collected 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Derby County have managed just 3 points and lost 4 games. The hosts have scored 8 goals during this period, one more than their opponents, while their defense has conceded 8 goals compared with Derby’s 10. Derby have conceded an average of 2 goals per game in their last five outings, which, combined with Charlton’s average of 1.6 goals scored, suggests favourable conditions for the hosts’ attack. The two teams are level in the table, occupying 7th and 8th place, but the current trend clearly favors Charlton, particularly as Derby have won only one of their last five matches. A home win is therefore the most likely outcome, although Charlton’s own inconsistent defense leaves a realistic possibility of a closely contested match.

The strongest signal comes from current form: both Charlton and Derby recorded BTTS in each of their last 5 matches, representing a 100% rate. During this period, Charlton scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.6, while Derby scored 1.4 goals but allowed 2.0 goals per match. The hosts created chances worth an average of 1.38 xG, and Derby 1.45 xG, while both defenses allowed opponents more: 1.48 and 1.91 xG respectively. In total, Charlton scored and conceded 8 goals in their last five appearances, while Derby scored 7 and conceded 10, clearly supporting a scenario in which both teams score. Seasonal data is unavailable, so the assessment is based primarily on the highly consistent offensive-defensive trend from recent matches.

Both teams have displayed a clearly open profile in their last five matches: Charlton averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded the same number, while Derby scored 1.4 goals and conceded as many as 2.0. Derby allowed opponents an average of 1.91 xG, supporting a projection of around 1.65 goals for the hosts, while Charlton allowed 1.48 xG, with the visitors generating 1.45 xG. Both teams scored in each of their last five matches, while games featuring at least three goals occurred in 80% of Charlton’s matches and 100% of Derby’s. The combined projection of 3.11 goals provides the strongest edge for Over 1.5, as even with a partial decline in finishing efficiency, the data from both defenses strongly limits the likelihood of a one-goal-or-fewer scenario.

Charlton were level at half-time in 80% of their last five matches and have not been behind at the break in any of them, strongly supporting the X outcome after 45 minutes. The hosts are also clearly more solid before half-time: they score an average of 1.0 goals and concede just 0.4, while Derby score 0.75 and allow opponents 1.0 goal on average. Over the full match, Charlton won 40% of their last five games and averaged 1.4 points per match, whereas Derby lost 80% of that sequence and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. The visitors were behind at half-time in as many as 50% of their recent appearances, so after an initially balanced phase, Charlton are more likely to complete the turnaround. The X/1 pick combines the hosts' strong tendency to draw in the first half with Derby's significantly weaker defensive form over the full match.