Châteauroux vs Fleury 91: match statistics

I predict an away win ('2') because Fleury 91 has 13 wins this season versus Châteauroux's 5, sits 3rd versus 15th and has scored 40 goals compared to the hosts' 29. In the last 5 matches Fleury scored 11 goals, with a record of 3 wins and 2 draws (0 losses) and an average of 2.2 points per game, while Châteauroux scored 7 goals, won only 1 match and averages 0.8 points per game; the hosts conceded 13 goals in those five matches, the visitors only 4. The visitors' defense looks superior: Châteauroux concedes 1.71 goals per home match, Fleury concedes 0.93 away, with 14% clean sheets for the hosts versus 36% for the visitors. Chance quality is similar (1.33 xG for hosts vs 1.29 xG for visitors), but Fleury have a higher shooting conversion 13% vs 9% and a lower share of matches without a goal 21% vs 50%, which translates into more converted chances. Considering the advantage in form (2.2 points per game vs 0.8), fewer goals conceded (0.93 vs 1.71) and better chance conversion, I give Fleury 91 the higher probability of victory.

I recommend BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability versus 35% for No, because short-term indicators are strong. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 60% (Châteauroux 60%, Fleury 60%), and the home side conceded 13 goals in those 5 fixtures, i.e. 2.6 goals per match on average. Fleury scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 avg) and conceded only 4 goals (0.8 avg), which highlights the visitors’ offensive form and the likelihood they will score. xG confirms that both teams create chances: home xG 1.47 versus xG against Fleury 1.41, and away xG 1.29 versus xG against Châteauroux 1.28; values around ~1.3–1.5 indicate realistic opportunities on both sides. Seasonal data are mixed (Châteauroux season BTTS 36% and 50% clean sheets, Fleury season BTTS 50%, league average BTTS 53%), therefore I give a moderate edge to the Both Teams to Score scenario based on the last 5 matches and the xG profiles.

I expect a total of approximately 2.73 goals in the match, with expected xG for the home side around 1.44 (home attack xG 1.47 vs away defense xG 1.41) and for the away side around 1.29 (away attack xG 1.29 vs home defense xG 1.28). In their last 5 matches Fleury have scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8), while Châteauroux have scored 7 (1.4) and conceded 13 (2.6), indicating a higher risk of goals from both sides. Season-to-date Over 1.5 occurred in 71% of Châteauroux’s matches and 64% of Fleury’s matches, and a Poisson model with lambda=2.73 estimates Over 1.5 at ~76% and Over 2.5 at ~52%. I rate Over 3.5 lower (~30%), consistent with seasonal values of 29% (home) and 21% (away). Therefore the strongest signal is the Over on the 1.5 line — high seasonal frequency of Over 1.5, expected total 2.73 and Châteauroux’s poor defense in the last 5 matches (13 conceded) support this option.

Châteauroux led at the break in 6 matches (43%) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 79% of games, with an average goals at half-time of 0.71 versus 0.5 for Fleury 91, giving the home side an advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over full matches the hosts won 50% of fixtures, have higher average xG (1.47 vs 1.29) and more shots on target per game (4.92 vs 3.5), which confirms Châteauroux’s superior offensive efficiency. Fleury 91, however, are in better recent form over the last 5 matches (60% wins vs 20% for the hosts) and show stronger second halves (last 5: 2.6 points in second half for the visitors vs 0.6 for the hosts), which reduces the post-break advantage. Considering that the hosts lead or are level at half-time in 86% of matches (43%+43%) and their higher season-long effectiveness, the most likely scenario is Châteauroux leading at half-time and winning by full-time. Therefore I select 1/1 as the strongest signal and assess its probability at about 34%, while also acknowledging significant chances for X/1 (19%) and X/X (13%).