Chełmianka Chełm vs KSZO: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm has a clear advantage in chance creation and finishing — at home they average 19 shots and 8.5 on target per match versus KSZO’s 10.6 shots and 4.2 on target away. Quality of chances also favors the hosts: Chełmianka’s xG is 2.18 compared to 1.38 for KSZO, and the conversion rate is 26% vs 22%, reflected in 12 goals for Chełmianka in the last 5 matches versus 8 for the visitors. KSZO, however, impresses with defensive stability and their away record — they are unbeaten on the road (loss% 0), concede on average 0.67 goals away versus 0.8 at home and have 40% clean sheets compared to Chełmianka’s 33%. Both teams show similar form (3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5, averaging 2.2 points per match), suggesting a balanced contest. Given superior control (possession 60% vs 48%) and clearly better chance creation, I give a slight edge to the hosts.

The chances for BTTS look high, as both teams have season BTTS rates of 67% (Chełmianka) and 60% (KSZO), exceeding the league average of 57%. Both sides score regularly: Chełmianka averages 1.93 goals, KSZO 2.07, with shares of matches without a goal at 20% and 13% respectively (i.e. 80% and 87% of matches with a goal). In the last 5 fixtures both teams have BTTS at 60%; Chełmianka scored 12 goals (2.4 avg) and conceded 4 (0.8), KSZO scored 8 (1.6) and conceded 5 (1.0). Defensively KSZO performs better — conceding 0.67 goals this season and recording 40% clean sheets versus Chełmianka’s 1.13 and 33% — but xG and shot volume (Chełmianka xG 1.48 and 14.0 shots, KSZO xG 1.38 and 10.6 shots) indicate realistic scoring chances for both sides. Considering these figures and a simple calculation 80%*87%≈70% probability, I assign 70% to BTTS 'Yes' and 30% to 'No'.

Both teams feature potent attacks: Chełmianka averages 1.93 goals per game, KSZO 2.07, and the league averages 3.1 goals per match. xG is 1.48 for the home side and 1.38 for the away side, with xG against of 1.29 (Chełmianka) and 1.17 (KSZO), yielding estimated goals of 1.33 for Chełmianka and 1.34 for KSZO (total 2.67). Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 are 80% for Chełmianka and 67% for KSZO (average ~74%), and both teams score in 67% and 60% of matches respectively, so I assess Over 1.5 at 74%. Over 2.5 occurred in 67% of Chełmianka’s games and 53% of KSZO’s matches this season (average 60%); with shot averages of 14 vs 10.6 and a higher conversion rate for the away side (22% vs 14%), I raise the probability of Over 2.5 to 62%. Over 3.5 is less likely (seasonally 40% vs 27%, average ~34%), therefore I recommend backing the Over line at 1.5 as the strongest signal.

KSZO is the favorite based on seasonal metrics: the visitors have won 80% of matches and average 2.6 points per match, while Chełmianka has a 47% win rate and 1.73 points per match, which clearly favors KSZO to win. Nevertheless, both teams frequently draw at the break — Chełmianka are level at half-time in 54% of matches, and KSZO in 67% — and first-half goals averages are 0.85 (home) and 0.78 (away), so a draw at the break is the most likely state. After the break KSZO’s advantage is visible defensively: the visitors concede only 0.11 goals on average in the second half and keep 89% of second halves clean, therefore they have a greater chance to turn a half-time draw into a win. Additionally, KSZO’s shot conversion rate is 22% versus 14% for the hosts, while the visitors’ xG is 1.38 compared to Chełmianka’s 1.48 (similar chance creation, higher efficiency for the visitors), which reinforces the draw-at-half followed by a KSZO win scenario. I therefore indicate X/2 as the most likely outcome (approx. 38%), followed by X/X (20%) and 2/2 (9%).