Chełmianka Chełm vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: match statistics

The favorite is Chełmianka Chełm: at home the hosts win 75% of matches, have 15 wins this season and scored 13 goals in the last 5 games (avg. 2.6 per match), while Pogoń-Sokół away win only 33% and scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (1.6 per match). The hosts’ defense looks more stable — they concede 0.67 goals at home on average and keep 42% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.58 goals away and have only 17% clean sheets. The difference in chance quality is clear: Chełmianka averages 8.5 shots on target and about 19 total shots at home with xG 2.18, while Pogoń-Sokół has 3.22 shots on target, 8.89 total shots and xG 1.18 on the road. The hosts are also more efficient (conversion rate 26% at home) and less likely to be shut out (8% of matches without a goal) versus 15% conversion and 25% matches without a goal for the visitors. Considering the advantage in chance creation, higher xG (2.18 vs 1.18) and better defense (0.67 vs 1.58), I predict a home win; probability distribution: home 70%, draw 18%, away 12%.

Season and league averages point toward a BTTS scenario: Chełmianka has BTTS at 54% and Pogoń-Sokół 58%, versus a league average of 57% (simple mean 56%). The trend from the last 5 matches reinforces this signal — both teams show 60% BTTS; Chełmianka averages 2.6 goals in the last 5, Pogoń-Sokół 1.6, indicating offensive activity from both sides. Limiting factors include Chełmianka’s high share of clean sheets (46%); however Pogoń-Sokół has only 17% clean sheets and concedes 1.58 goals per game on the season, so hosts are more likely to concede. Additionally, both teams have scored 45 goals this season, with xG: 1.42 (Chełmianka) vs 1.18 (Pogoń-Sokół) and a league average of 3.16 goals per match, all favoring goal exchange. Given the above figures, I assess BTTS - Yes at 62% vs 38% for No.

I calculated expected goals by combining the team xG with the opponent xG: (1.42 + 1.12)/2 = 1.27 for Chełmianka and (1.18 + 1.63)/2 = 1.41 for Pogoń, giving a total of ~2.68 goals. Chełmianka scores on average 1.85 goals per game with 6.0 shots on target and 24% conversion, while Pogoń-Sokół has 1.75 goals, 3.22 shots on target and 15% conversion, which gives the home side an edge in chance quality. Season-long percentages show Over 1.5 for Chełmianka at 62% and for Pogoń at 75%, and BTTS 54% vs 58%, so both sides frequently get on the scoresheet. A Poisson model with a total of ~2.68 yields roughly 75% probability for Over 1.5, ~50% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5; based on that the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Chełmianka led at half-time in 7 matches (64%) and keep a clean sheet at the break in 82% of appearances, with an average of 1.0 goals scored by half-time and 0.18 conceded, which strongly indicates the home side leading after 45 minutes. Over the full match the hosts average 2.08 points per game versus 1.08 for visitors, with seasonal goal averages of 1.85 for Chełmianka versus 1.75 for opponents and seasonal conceded averages of 0.92 versus 1.58 for the away side, giving Chełmianka the advantage to see out the match. Chełmianka register on average 6.0 shots on target with an xG of 1.42, while the visitors have 3.22 shots on target and an xG of 1.18, so the hosts are clearly more threatening in quality. The visitors led at half-time in 38% of matches and draw more often at the break (50%), so the strongest signal from the data is the hosts maintaining their lead from half-time to full-time. Therefore the HT/FT pick is 1/1 as the most likely scenario.