Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm holds a clear home advantage: they win 71% of home matches, score on average 2.0 goals per game and record an average xG of 2.18, while conceding only 0.71 goals per game. The hosts generate a high volume of chances — on average 19 shots and 8.5 on target at home with a strong shot conversion rate of 26% — whereas Starachowice on the road average 11.17 shots, 3.83 on target and only 9% conversion with xG 1.34. Additionally, Chełmianka scores in virtually every match (failed to score in only 7% of home games), while the visitors fail to score in 29% of away matches and concede on average 1.21 goals away. In the last 5 matches Starachowice have a better points return (2.0 points vs 1.6 points for Chełmianka), but the gap in quality of chances (xG 2.18 vs 1.34), possession (60% vs 47%) and shots on target (8.5 vs 3.83) gives the hosts a clear edge. Consequently I predict a home win as the most likely outcome, with estimated probabilities of 70% for Chełmianka, 18% for a draw and 12% for a Starachowice win.

xG analysis provides a clear signal for Both Teams To Score: home expected goals are roughly (1.44 + 1.45)/2 = 1.45, away expected goals roughly (1.34 + 1.53)/2 = 1.44 — both sides generate on average ~1.44 goals in this match. Seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for Chełmianka and 50% for Starachowice, while the league BTTS level is 59%, so historically matches in this league more often finish Goal/Goal. The home side is more efficient in attack at home (2.07 goals per game, 5.09 shots on target and 15% conversion), whereas the visitors show weaker efficiency (1.00 goal per game, 3.83 shots on target and 9% conversion), which reduces but does not eliminate Starachowice’s scoring threat. Defensively Chełmianka is solid (0.93 goals conceded on the season and 47% clean sheet expected, averaging 0.6 conceded in the last 5 matches), while the away team has averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last 5 — these mixed signals partially balance the xG and league tendency. Considering similar xG (~1.44/1.44), seasonal BTTS 53%/50% and league 59%, my strongest signal is BTTS 'Yes' with an estimated probability of 62% vs 38% for 'No'.

Chełmianka scores an average of 2.07 goals at home, while Starachowice scores 1.00 on the road; hosts concede 0.93 and visitors 1.21, indicating potential for multiple goals. Home xG is 1.44 versus 1.34 for the away side, with xG against at 1.53 (Chełmianka) and 1.45 (Star), yielding expected 1.45 goals for the hosts and 1.43 for the visitors, a total of 2.88 goals. Season Over 1.5 percentages are 87% for the hosts and 71% for the visitors; assuming approximate independence this implies about a 96% chance of Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 is around 70% and Over 3.5 about 48%. Chełmianka averages 12.55 shots with 5.09 on target and a 15% conversion rate, which further increases the likelihood of at least two goals, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Chełmianka holds a clear advantage: the home side led at the break in 6 of 10 matches (60%) and have a season win rate of 73% versus Starachowice’s 29%, which strongly supports a home lead at half-time and a home win. At half-time Chełmianka averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Starachowice record 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded, so statistically a Chełmianka lead after 45 minutes is more likely. After the break the home team scores on average 0.8 goals versus just 0.11 for the visitors; they also register 5.09 shots on target compared to 3.83 and have a conversion rate of 15% against 9%, which reduces the visitors’ chances of a turnaround. For these reasons the strongest signal from the data is the scenario of Chełmianka leading at half-time and ultimately winning the match (1/1).