Cheonan City vs Gimhae City: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Cheonan City sit 9th with 19 goals for and 18 against on the season, while Gimhae City are 17th with a 12–33 goal record. At home Cheonan averages 13 shots per game, 3.63 on target, and xG 1.5; Gimhae on the road average 8.25 shots, 3.63 on target and xG 1.16. Gimhae have a higher conversion rate (11% vs 7%) but lose 50% of away matches and concede 1.75 goals on average, whereas Cheonan concede only 0.75 at home and keep a 50% clean sheet rate. In the last 5 matches Cheonan have scored 8 and conceded 8 (PPG 1.0), while Gimhae have scored 5 and conceded 10 (PPG 0.8), highlighting the visitors’ poorer form. Considering the higher xG (1.5 vs 1.16), stronger home defense (0.75 vs 1.75) and Cheonan’s high home draw rate (63%), I predict a home victory, though the risk of a draw is material.

Both teams show a high seasonal BTTS rate: Cheonan City 71% and Gimhae City 75%, with BTTS at 80% for both teams in the last 5 matches. In the last 5 matches Cheonan averages 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, while Gimhae has 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded; seasonal xG is 1.3 (Cheonan) vs 1.16 (Gimhae) with xG against 1.96 and 1.92, indicating genuine scoring opportunities from both sides. Shot stats are 10.57 shots and 3.43 on target for Cheonan vs 8.25 and 3.63 for Gimhae, with conversion 7% vs 11%, meaning Gimhae is more efficient with fewer attempts. Clean sheet chances are low: CS 0% for Cheonan and 13% for Gimhae versus the league 45%, and Cheonan has 86% of matches over 2.5 goals, which increases the likelihood of goal exchanges. Based on this I favor BTTS - Yes and assess probability at 82% for yes vs 18% for no, because consistent 71%/75% seasonally and 80% in the last 5 matches provide the strongest signal.

Based on xG: xg_for_avg_home = 1.30 vs xg_against_avg_away = 1.92 yields expected home goals ≈ 1.61, and xg_for_avg_away = 1.16 vs xg_against_avg_home = 1.96 yields expected away goals ≈ 1.56, total = 3.17. Season stats show Over 1.5 occurred in 86% of Cheonan’s matches and 88% of Gimhae’s matches (avg 87%), and both teams have high both-teams-to-score rates: 71% and 75%. Cheonan concedes on average 2.71 goals per match and 100% of their matches featured at least 0.5 opponent goals, while Gimhae concedes at least 0.5 goals in 88% of matches, increasing the likelihood of more than one goal. A Poisson model for total 3.17 suggests ~83% for Over 1.5, ~61% for Over 2.5 and ~39% for Over 3.5, consistent with seasonal indicators (Over 2.5: Cheonan 86% vs Gimhae 38%). As a result, the strongest data-driven signal is a play on Over 1.5 (line 1.5, Over).

Statistical analysis indicates Gimhae's superiority in second halves and Cheonan's tendency to concede after the break: Gimhae averages 0.88 goals after half-time versus Cheonan's 0.43, while Cheonan concedes an average of 2.00 second-half goals compared to 0.88 conceded by Gimhae. Cheonan as the home side is particularly weak — winless (0.0% wins) and conceding an average of 2.71 goals per game; additionally they have conceded as many as 10 goals in minutes 76–90, whereas Gimhae scored 4 goals in those minutes, suggesting frequent late turnarounds by the visitors. xG shows both teams create chances (xG 1.30 for Cheonan vs 1.16 for Gimhae, shots on target 3.43 vs 3.63), but Gimhae is more efficient (conversion rate 11% vs 7%), increasing the likelihood that the visitors will capitalize on their opportunities in the second half. In the first half Cheonan averages 0.29 scored and 0.71 conceded, so a home lead or a draw at the break is realistic, but given that Gimhae has gained 10 points in second halves (an average of 1.25 points after the break), a turnaround by the visitors is more likely. Therefore my strongest signal is 1/2 (home leading at half-time, Gimhae winning full-time), with a significant secondary scenario X/2 (draw at half-time, visitors win full-time).