Cheonan City vs Suwon: match statistics

Suwon holds the advantage and I forecast an away win, as they average 1.86 goals on the road versus Cheonan’s 0.71 at home. This season Suwon have scored 24 goals compared to Cheonan’s 16, and in the last 5 matches they have 9 goals to Cheonan’s 6, confirming superior attacking efficiency from the visitors. The key point is conversion rate: Suwon convert 19% of their shots away, while Cheonan manage only a 5% conversion and have as many as 43% of home games without a goal; despite Cheonan’s home xG of 1.55, they only realize 0.71 goals from it. The hosts’ defense is nonetheless compact — Cheonan concede only 0.57 goals per home game and register 57% clean sheets and 57% draws at their stadium, which increases the probability of a point share. Considering Suwon’s shooting superiority and the low percentage of goalless away games for the visitors (14%), I assess the probabilities: Suwon 45%, draw 40%, Cheonan win 15%.

I forecast BTTS (both teams to score) at 88% vs 12% with a recommendation: Yes. Supporting season BTTS rates are 83% for Cheonan City and 86% for Suwon against a league average of 62%, indicating a high frequency of goals from both sides. Goal stats show Cheonan scores 1.83 goals per game versus 1.71 conceded by Suwon, while Suwon scores 1.86 and concedes 1.00 for Cheonan, so both teams have realistic scoring potential. Additionally, xG is 1.43 for Cheonan and 1.25 for Suwon, shots on target 3.5 vs 4.0, and shot conversion 15% vs 19%; Suwon has 0% clean sheets this season (Cheonan 17%), which further supports a Goal/Goal outcome. The only counterweight is Cheonan’s low recent BTTS run (40% in the last 5 matches), so I assign a 12% probability to the No Goal scenario as a caution.

xG-based forecast: Cheonan has xG_for 1.43 and xG against Suwon 1.24, yielding an expected 1.34 goals for the home side; conversely Suwon xG_for 1.25 and xG against Cheonan 1.58 give an expected 1.42 goals, totaling 2.76. A Poisson model with lambda=2.76 translates to roughly 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals, 52% for Over 2.5 goals and 30% for Over 3.5 goals (corresponding Under: 24%, 48%, 70%). Seasonal metrics support this picture: Over 1.5 goals occurred in 83% of Cheonan’s matches and 100% of Suwon’s, Over 2.5 in 67% and 86% respectively, and both teams scored in 83%/86% of matches. In the last 5 fixtures Cheonan averaged 1.2 goals and Suwon 1.8 (total goals in last 5: 6 vs 9; goals conceded: 5 vs 6), which slightly depresses the home side’s scoring rate and explains the moderate probability for Over 2.5. Consequently the strongest signal is the market at 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5) — the model gives 76% backing, further reinforced by seasonal rates of 83%/100%.

The hosts have a clear lead at the break — they were leading at half-time in 4 matches (67%) and score on average 1.00 goals by half-time while conceding 0.50, whereas Suwon led at the break 3 times (43%) and have HT averages of 0.86 scored/0.86 conceded. Over full matches Cheonan averages 2.00 points per game versus Suwon’s 1.43 and concedes 1.00 goals per match compared to 1.71 for the visitors, which suggests the home side more often maintains or converts a lead. The home advantage is supported by xG 1.43 versus 1.25 and more shots on average (12.33 vs 10.00), i.e. a higher number of goal-scoring opportunities for Cheonan. On the other hand Suwon is more active after the break — the visitors score on average 1.00 goal in second halves versus 0.83 for the hosts, and both teams frequently score (both teams scored in 86% of visitors’ matches and 83% of hosts’ matches), so guest turnarounds are possible. Based on these figures the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1), therefore I regard 1/1 as the strongest signal.