Cheongju vs Daegu: match statistics

I predict a Daegu win ('2') — the visitors have 7 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses this season, while Cheongju have only 1 win, 10 draws and 3 losses. In the last 5 matches Daegu scored 9 goals with a 3-2-0 record, whereas Cheongju scored 6 goals, failed to win and are 0–3–2, highlighting a clear difference in form momentum. Offensively, Daegu away average 1.83 goals with xG 1.72 and 5.17 shots on target, while Cheongju at home average 1.00 goal per game with xG 1.60 and 4.14 shots on target; a conversion rate of 15% versus 8% further favors the visitors. Defensively, Cheongju concede 1.71 goals at home on average and have allowed 8 goals in the last 5 matches, while Daegu concede 1.5 goals away and only 2 goals in their last 5 fixtures, indicating greater defensive stability for the visitors. Cheongju also have a 0% win rate and 57% draws in home matches and average 0.6 points per game in the last 5 matches versus 2.2 points per game for Daegu, therefore I assess win probability as: Daegu 65%, draw 25%, Cheongju 10%.

Seasonal indicators favor BTTS - Daegu has a season rate of matches with both teams scoring at 83%, versus a league average of 63%. Both teams' xG are high (Cheongju 1.93 vs Daegu 1.72), suggesting goals from both sides. Both sides also have a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (Cheongju 63%, Daegu 67%), and across the season Daegu scored 27 goals compared to Cheongju's 17, reinforcing an offensive scenario. The counterargument is Daegu's recent form: in their last 5 matches BTTS is 40% and they conceded a total of 2 goals (0.4 per game), whereas Cheongju in their last 5 has BTTS 80%, conceded 8 goals (1.6 per game) and scored 6 (1.2 per game), showing hosts have been conceding more recently. Cheongju has had no matches this season without scoring (0% matches without a goal), while at home they have 50% clean sheets, which is a mixed signal but also indicates the hosts usually score. Considering the strong seasonal signal for Daegu (83%), the high xG for both sides (1.93 vs 1.72) and the league BTTS average of 63%, I favor the 'both teams to score' scenario and price it at 65% vs 35% for 'No'.

Based on xG (Cheongju xG_for 1.93, Daegu xG_for 1.72) and xG against (Cheongju 1.48, Daegu 1.34) I project 1.64 goals for the home side and 1.60 for the away side, totaling 3.24 goals. This season 75% of Cheongju’s matches and 83% of Daegu’s matches have finished over 1.5 goals, while the league average is 2.74, so I assess Over 1.5 at 88%. The 2.5 line has solid backing: Cheongju records 63% of games over 2.5 and Daegu 67%, and the expected 3.24 goals implies Over 2.5 at roughly 68%. Signals for 3.5 are mixed — Daegu has 67% of matches over 3.5, Cheongju only 38%, but the combined expected total of 3.24 is below 3.5, so I give a slight edge to Under (Over 48% / Under 52%). BTTS is 50% for the home side and 83% for the away side, which further increases the likelihood of a multi-goal game and confirms that the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

At half-time a draw looks most likely: Cheongju are drawing at the break in 63% of their home matches, with first-half goals averaging 0.75 for the hosts versus 0.67 for Daegu. After the break there is significant goal activity – 88% of home fixtures see at least one second-half goal, Daegu also have 83% of away matches with a second-half goal, and second-half goals average 1.88 (Cheongju) vs 2.00 (Daegu), which raises the likelihood of a decision after the break. The final result favors the hosts: Cheongju win 63% of home games, have the higher xG (1.93 vs 1.72) and more shots (15.63 vs 12.5), so a draw at HT is more often turned into a Cheongju victory. Despite the hosts’ poor form over the last five matches (dddll, 0% wins) and Daegu’s good recent form (60% wins in their last five), the seasonal metrics and the advantage in xG/shots support the scenario of a half-time draw and a Cheongju win at full-time (X/1).