Cheongju vs Gimhae City: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Cheongju creates significantly more chances and has a higher xG — averaging 14.67 shots per home match versus 7.67 shots for the visitors away and xG 1.56 vs 1.05. The hosts have scored 9 goals this season (avg. 1.00 per home match) and have netted 6 in their last 5, while Gimhae have 4 goals this season and only 3 in their last 5, which indicates Cheongju’s offensive superiority. Form also favors the hosts: Cheongju have drawn 4 of their last 5 and average 0.8 points per match in that period, whereas Gimhae have lost 4 of 5 and average just 0.2 points per match. Both defenses are prone to conceding — Cheongju concede 2.33 goals on average at home, Gimhae 2.00 away, both teams have 0% clean sheets, with the visitors failing to score in 33% of their away matches versus 0% FTS for the hosts. With possession advantage (56% vs 47%) and more shots on target (4 vs 3.33), I give Cheongju the better chances, though a draw remains realistic.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS level of 67% (Cheongju 67%, Gimhae 67%) versus the league average of 63%; in the last 5 matches BTTS is 80% for Cheongju and 60% for Gimhae, providing a strong signal for both sides. Both teams have 0% clean sheets this season, meaning neither has kept a clean sheet, which significantly increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Defensively Cheongju concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game and Gimhae 2.0, with xG against of 1.82 and 1.55 — opponents frequently create genuine scoring opportunities against these teams. Offensively Cheongju produces xG 1.22 and averages 2.67 shots on target, and Gimhae xG 1.05 with 3.33 shots on target, so both teams generate chances despite a low seasonal goals scored average of 0.67 and 0.67. Based on this I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% (No Goal 25%), because 67% seasonally, 80%/60% in the last 5 matches, the lack of clean sheets and high concession averages (3.0 and 2.0) form the strongest signal for both teams to score.

Both teams have a season rate of matches over 1.5 goals at 100% (Cheongju and Gimhae), and the projected xG is 1.35 for Cheongju and 1.07 for Gimhae City, totaling 2.42 xG, so Over 1.5 is clearly likely. In the last 5 matches Cheongju records an average xG of 1.48 and scores on average 1.2 goals, while Gimhae has xG 1.08 and averages 0.6 goals, which confirms greater attacking activity from the home side (1.48 vs 1.08). For the 2.5 line the picture is mixed: Cheongju has 100% of season matches >2.5, Gimhae 33%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of games >2.5, therefore with an expected 2.42 goals and a league average of 2.86 I give Over 2.5 moderate edge (60%). Over 3.5 appears unlikely — season rate >3.5 is 33%/33%, and projected 2.42 goals combined with shot conversion 6% (Cheongju) vs 9% (Gimhae) reduce the probability, hence Over 3.5 at about 30%. In summary, the strongest signal is the Over at 1.5 (95%), while 2.5 is a moderately backed option (60%).

Cheongju led at the break in 33% of matches, while Gimhae has never led at the break (0%), which favors the home side in the first half. However, Cheongju concedes an average of 2.33 goals after the break and has shipped 4 goals in minutes 76–90, while Gimhae scored 2 goals in that phase, so second-half equalizers are a frequent scenario. In xG the hosts have 1.22 versus 1.05 for the visitors, but Cheongju allows 1.82 xG compared to 1.55 for Gimhae, indicating a weaker defense and a lower chance of holding a lead. Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 67% and in the last 5 matches Cheongju recorded 4 draws (80%), whereas Gimhae lost 4 of 5 (80%), therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time market of home leading at the break and a draw at the final whistle (1/X).