Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati: match statistics
Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Chicago Fire played against FC Cincinnati in MLS (United States). The game was played on May 3, 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Recent form
Chicago Fire has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.60 points per game. FC Cincinnati has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Chicago Fire scores 1.89 goals per game and allows 0.89. FC Cincinnati scores 1.90 and allows 2.30. Games in this league average 3.20 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 44% of Chicago Fire's games and 60% of FC Cincinnati's. The Over 2.5 rates are 67% and 50%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 61% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
FC Cincinnati has the higher season xG average, 1.58 to 1.49 per game. Chicago Fire takes 13.3 shots per game, while FC Cincinnati takes 14.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Chicago Fire leads at halftime in 56% of its games and scores 1.11 goals per game after halftime. FC Cincinnati leads at halftime in 10% and scores 1.20 after halftime.
When the teams score
Chicago Fire's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (5 goals). For FC Cincinnati, it is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
MLS games average 3.20 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 61% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 6.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Chicago Fire to win. At home Fire win 80% of matches, score an average of 2.2 goals per game and concede only 0.4 goals with 80% clean sheets, and their home xG is 1.69 versus 1.23 xG against, indicating control and efficiency in home fixtures. FC Cincinnati away have a 0% win rate, 60% losses and concede an average of 3.2 goals per game, with an away xG against of 1.82, signaling clear defensive issues on the road. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 12 goals, but Chicago have 3 wins and 2.0 points per game in that period versus 1.2 points per game for the away side, so the home advantage in defense and form is decisive.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I forecast BTTS - Yes because FC Cincinnati has a season BTTS of 80% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with 0% clean sheets and conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game. Chicago Fire scores on average 2.2 goals in the season and 2.4 in the last 5, while conceding 1.4 in the season and 1.2 in the last 5, which shows they can score but also concede (seasonal BTTS 40%, last 5 – 60%). Both teams have similar attacking xG: 1.63 for Chicago vs 1.52 for Cincinnati, and xG against of 1.63 vs 1.82, indicating both sides create and allow chances. In the league BTTS occurs in 57% of matches and the average goals per game is 3.23, so open play and goals from both sides are statistically common. Considering Cincinnati’s 80% season BTTS and 0% away clean sheets and Chicago’s 2.2 average goals scored, I assess the probability of BTTS at around 80% and No Goal at 20%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a significant probability of Over 2.5 goals: Chicago Fire averages 2.2 goals per game while FC Cincinnati concedes 3.2 on average, creating a clear goal incentive. Combining xG 1.63 (Chicago) and xG against 1.82 (Cincinnati) yields an expected 1.73 goals for the home side, while 1.52 (Cincinnati xG) with 1.63 (xG against Chicago) yields 1.58 for the visitors; the combined expected total is 3.31 goals. Both teams have 80% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, and in the last 5 fixtures Chicago has 80% of games over 2.5 (12 scored, 6 conceded), while FC Cincinnati has 60% (12 scored, 12 conceded), which supports the pricing of Over 2.5. Additionally, the league average is 3.23 goals per game, and shots on target 5.4 vs 5.8 with conversion rates 14% vs 13% suggest meaningful scoring opportunities for both sides; therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the best line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Chicago Fire holds a clear edge: they average 2.2 goals per game versus 1.6 for FC Cincinnati, and hosts collect 2.0 points per home match compared to 0.4 points on the road for Cincinnati, with a season win rate of 60% for Chicago versus 0% for the visitors. At half-time the hosts average 0.8 goals versus 0.6 for the guests and have scored 4 goals in the 31–45 minute window compared to 1 for Cincinnati; additionally, in the last 5 matches Chicago led at the break in 60% of games and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 60% of cases. After the break the metrics also favor Chicago: visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals in the second half versus 0.6 for the hosts, and xG shows a small but existent advantage for Chicago (1.63 vs 1.52). Therefore the most likely scenario is Chicago leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assign it a 36% probability; alternatively, a half-time draw and a home win (X/1) is realistic at 22% and a half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X) at 20%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Chicago Fire | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Chicago Fire is 117% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / game - Chicago Fire · 1.2 pts / game - FC Cincinnati
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chicago Fire is 158% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.89 goals / game - Chicago Fire · 2.3 goals / game - FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire scores in 89% of games (8 of 9 meczów), while FC Cincinnati keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 meczów).
FC Cincinnati scores in 80% of games (8 of 10 meczów), while Chicago Fire keeps a clean sheet in 56% (5 of 9 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chicago Fire
Over / Under - FC Cincinnati
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chicago Fire is 164% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.11 pts / game - Chicago Fire · 0.8 pts / game - FC Cincinnati
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chicago Fire - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 56% of games and wins 56%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
FC Cincinnati - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 10% of games and wins 30%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Chicago Fire | Liga | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.78 | 3.20 | ▲ 4.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 24% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 74% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Chicago Fire's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against FC Cincinnati. Games average 6.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
The MLS match finished Chicago Fire 2:3 FC Cincinnati. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
Chicago Fire score 1.89 goals per game on average and FC Cincinnati 1.90. The MLS average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Chicago Fire's matches and 60% of FC Cincinnati's.
What form are Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati in?
Over the last 5 games Chicago Fire have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and FC Cincinnati 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.