Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC: match statistics
Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Chicago Fire played against Nashville SC in MLS (United States). The game was played on April 5, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Chicago Fire has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Nashville SC has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 2.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Chicago Fire scores 1.40 goals per game and allows 1.00. Nashville SC scores 2.60 and allows 0.40. Games in this league average 3.12 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 60% of Chicago Fire's games and 40% of Nashville SC's. The Over 2.5 rates are 80% and 60%, compared with league averages of 54% for BTTS and 63% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Nashville SC has the higher season xG average, 1.41 to 1.39 per game. Chicago Fire takes 11.4 shots per game, while Nashville SC takes 12.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Chicago Fire leads at halftime in 40% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Nashville SC leads at halftime in 60% and scores 1.20 after halftime.
When the teams score
Chicago Fire's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (3 goals). For Nashville SC, it is minutes 16-30 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
MLS games average 3.12 goals. Both teams score in 54% of games, and 63% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win: Chicago Fire hold a clear advantage in chance creation — on average 16 shots and 6.5 on target per home match with xG 1.86, compared to just 7.5 shots and 2.5 on target and xG 0.84 for Nashville away. The hosts average 2.0 goals per home game and have yet to register a match without a goal (0% of matches without scoring), while Nashville score 0.5 goals on average away and have 50% of away matches without a goal. Nashville’s season record (4W, 1D, 0L) and 2.2 points per match over the last five fixtures versus Chicago’s 1.4 raise the draw risk, and their defense has conceded only 2 goals this season. Considering Chicago’s superiority in quality of chances (xG 1.86 vs 0.84), better shot conversion (13% vs 7%) and their 2.0 home goals average, I assess their win probability at 60%, draw 25% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Chicago creates significantly more danger: on average 16 shots and 7.33 on target per game with xG 1.79 versus Nashville (7.5 shots, 2.5 on target, xG 0.84), which strongly supports a home goal. Nashville has averaged 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in 5), so they can score despite mixed season metrics; in those five games they conceded 0.4 goals on average. Seasonal metrics are mixed: Chicago has 67% home BTTS and 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, while Nashville’s season data shows 0% BTTS and 100% away clean sheets, which conflicts with their recent form. xG analysis (Chicago xG_for 1.79 vs Nashville xG_against 0.96 and Nashville xG_for 0.84 vs Chicago xG_against 0.94) and recent scoring figures suggest an exchange of goals is more likely, hence a 65% Yes / 35% No assessment.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based model: Chicago has xG_for 1.79 versus Nashville’s away xG_against 0.96, yielding expected home goals ≈1.38; for Nashville xG_for 0.84 versus home xG_against 0.94 yields ≈0.89, total = 2.27. From a Poisson distribution with λ=2.27 we get probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈66%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈40% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈19%. Additionally, Chicago at home seasonally scores on average 4.0 goals, averages 16 shots with 7.33 on target and has a 25% conversion rate, and seasonOver25Percentage_home is 100% — these offensive metrics strengthen the signal for Over, especially on the lower lines. Nashville away has a weaker attack: xG_for 0.84, only 2.5 shots on target and a 7% conversion, which limits their goal-creating ability. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, with the above estimates (Over1.5 66%, Over2.5 40%, Over3.5 19%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Chicago Fire led at the break in 3 of 3 home matches (100%) and averaged 2.33 goals scored in the first half versus 0.33 conceded, while Nashville have yet to score at the break on the road (0.0). The hosts generate more xG — 1.79 compared to the visitors’ 0.84 — take more shots (16.0 vs 7.5 on average) and more shots on target (7.33 vs 2.5), and the hosts’ shot conversion is 25% versus Nashville’s 7%. Chicago average 3.0 points per home match and have a 100% home win rate, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead to full-time. Therefore the scenario HT/FT home lead and home win (1/1) is assessed as the strongest (55%), with a moderate probability for 1/X (12%) and a low probability for 1/2 (5%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Chicago Fire | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Nashville SC is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Chicago Fire · 2.6 pts / game - Nashville SC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nashville SC is 86% better for: goals scored per game.
1.4 goals / game - Chicago Fire · 2.6 goals / game - Nashville SC
Nashville SC is 150% better for: goals allowed per game.
1 goals / game - Chicago Fire · 0.4 goals / game - Nashville SC
Chicago Fire scores in 80% of games (4 of 5 meczów), while Nashville SC keeps a clean sheet in 60% (3 of 5 meczów).
Nashville SC scores in 80% of games (4 of 5 meczów), while Chicago Fire keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chicago Fire
Over / Under - Nashville SC
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nashville SC is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.8 pts / game - Chicago Fire · 2.2 pts / game - Nashville SC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chicago Fire - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 40% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.6 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Nashville SC - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 60% of games and wins 80%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Chicago Fire | Liga | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.40 | 3.12 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 54% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 63% | ▼ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 27% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 72% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 83% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC?
The MLS match finished Chicago Fire 1:0 Nashville SC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC?
Chicago Fire score 1.40 goals per game on average and Nashville SC 2.60. The MLS average is 3.12 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Chicago Fire's matches and 40% of Nashville SC's.
What form are Chicago Fire and Nashville SC in?
Over the last 5 games Chicago Fire have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Nashville SC 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC?
The statistical background for Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.