Chichester City vs Poole Town: match statistics

Poole Town have shown slightly better form over their last five matches, earning 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Chichester City collected 5 points. The visitors were also more clinical, scoring 9 goals during this period—an average of 1.8 per match—compared with the hosts’ 6 goals, averaging 1.2. Neither defense offers complete security, but Poole Town conceded 8 goals, while Chichester City allowed 9, further reinforcing the visitors’ narrow advantage. The hosts lost their two most recent matches before going on a run of draws, whereas the visitors won two of their five games, making an away win the most likely outcome. However, the lack of complete season-long data on home and away performances increases the risk of a closely contested match and a draw.

In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, providing a moderately strong signal for goals at both ends. Chichester City averaged 1.2 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 1.8, while Poole Town scored 1.8 goals and allowed opponents 1.6. The hosts created chances worth an average xG of 1.46, while Poole Town allowed opponents an xG of 1.36, giving Chichester a solid basis for breaking down the visitors’ defense. Meanwhile, Poole Town have a favourable matchup against the hosts’ defense, which has an average xG conceded of 1.45. The lack of full-season data lowers confidence in the prediction, but the current goal-scoring form of both teams supports the scenario in which each side scores at least one goal — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal, rather than BTTS - No.

The available data from the last five matches points to games with an increased number of chances: Chichester averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Poole scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 goals. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60% of cases, and goals were scored by both sides in 60% of their games as well. The xG figures suggest approximately 2.75 goals in total: the hosts created chances worth 1.46 xG, while the visitors allowed opponents 1.36 xG; at the other end, the figures stand at 1.16 versus 1.45. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as given both teams’ attacking output and defensive vulnerability, at least two goals are clearly more likely than a low-scoring outcome.

The strongest signal comes from Poole Town’s first-half superiority: the visitors led at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Chichester City had not once gone into half-time ahead. Poole averaged 1.2 goals before the break, compared with just 0.2 for the hosts, and Chichester failed to score before half-time in 80% of those matches. The full-time result also slightly favors the visitors, who averaged 1.8 goals and won 40% of their last five matches, compared with 1.2 goals and a 20% win rate for the hosts. Chichester conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match and allowed opponents to score 1.2 goals after the break, increasing the likelihood that Poole will hold on to a lead secured earlier. Complete season-long data is unavailable, so the assessment remains cautious; however, the scenario in which the visitors lead at half-time and go on to win is the most likely.