Chonburi vs Rayong: match statistics

Rayong enter the match from the higher 5th position in the table, while Chonburi are 10th, and in the current season the visitors have won their only league match without conceding a goal. In their last five matches, Rayong have scored 7 goals and collected 1.6 points per game, compared with Chonburi’s 4 goals and 1.0 point per game. The hosts have lost 2 of their last 5 matches, while their record of 4 goals scored and 6 conceded points to limited attacking efficiency and problems maintaining a solid defense. Rayong have also conceded 8 goals in five appearances, so a draw remains a realistic outcome; however, their stronger results and better start to the season slightly favor the visitors.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by recent form: Chonburi and Rayong recorded BTTS in 40% and 60%, respectively, of their previous five matches. Rayong averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period, while Chonburi conceded 1.2; meanwhile, the hosts created a very strong 2.00 xG per match while allowing 1.61 xG. Rayong’s defense looks vulnerable, as the team conceded an average of 1.6 goals in its last five matches and allowed opponents 1.74 xG. Seasonal data is very limited and shows 0% BTTS for both sides, so it carries less weight than the sample from their last five appearances. With the league-wide BTTS average at 63%, the most likely scenario remains one in which both teams score at least once.

Data from the last five matches points to a moderate goals profile: Chonburi averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Rayong scored 1.4 goals and conceded 1.6. Both teams recorded matches with at least three goals in only 40% of their last five appearances, despite the league average standing at 2.63 goals. However, Chonburi created a high 2.00 xG per match, while Rayong allowed opponents 1.74 xG, which reduces the appeal of a low Under 2.5 line. At the same time, the projected total of 2.50 goals remains clearly below the four-goal threshold, and neither team has shown the consistent finishing required for an open, high-scoring game. Therefore, the strongest option is Under 3.5, as a maximum of three goals aligns well with both recent results and the projected total.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Chonburi win in the match, as the hosts drew the first half 0-0 in their only match so far and then won the second half 1-0. Their average xG is 1.64, compared with just 0.84 xG conceded to opponents, while they also average 16 shots, including 6 on target. However, their last five matches point to a cautious start: Chonburi score an average of 0.2 goals before the break, while Rayong also average 0.2, with no matches featuring goals from both sides in the first half. Rayong were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five appearances, but score an average of 1.2 goals after the break; therefore, the half-time draw remains more likely than an early lead for the hosts. Chonburi have home advantage and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their available league matches this season, strengthening the prediction that they will settle an evenly balanced opening in their favor after half-time.