Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing: match statistics

Chongqing Tongliang Long have a clear home advantage: they average 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded at home, while Dalian Zhixing allow opponents 2.27 goals per away match. The hosts have lost just 18% of their home fixtures, whereas the visitors have suffered defeat in as many as 64% of away matches, with a negative goal difference of -12. Defensive quality also favors Chongqing, who concede 0.98 xG, compared with 1.71 xG conceded by Dalian away from home. Both teams are going through a poor spell, with Chongqing scoring 4 goals in their last 5 matches and Dalian 6, but the hosts enjoy greater possession, 54% to 45%, and convert shots into goals more efficiently, 13% to 10%. Chongqing's high home draw rate of 45% increases the risk of a stalemate, but the hosts' defensive superiority and Dalian's away weakness point to a 1 result.

BTTS - Yes is primarily supported by Dalian’s very weak defense, which concedes an average of 2.27 goals per match, keeps a clean sheet in only 9% of games and allows an average of 1.71 xG. Chongqing should therefore find a way to score, especially as they create an average of 1.79 xG, register 16.18 shots and score 1.82 goals per match. The visitors average 1.18 goals, with an xG of 1.35, while the hosts concede 1.27 goals per game, giving Dalian a solid basis to respond. The season BTTS rate stands at 55% for Chongqing and as high as 73% for Dalian, compared with the league average of 63%. The main risk is the hosts’ weaker recent run, during which they scored just 4 goals in 5 matches and recorded BTTS in 20% of games. However, the scale of the visitors’ defensive problems still slightly favors a Goal/Goal prediction.

Chongqing averages 1.82 goals per match, while Dalian concede as many as 2.27, which clearly strengthens the outlook for goals from the hosts. The quality of chances also points towards an open game: Chongqing’s average xG stands at 1.79, while Dalian allow opponents 1.71 xG. The 1.5-goal line was surpassed in 73% of Chongqing’s matches and 82% of Dalian’s fixtures, with both teams scoring in every league match. Chongqing’s recent form is weaker, as they scored just 0.8 goals across their last five appearances, but Dalian conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as the projected total of 2.78 goals provides a solid margin above this line, while Over 2.5 is already much closer to an even proposition.

A draw at half-time followed by a Chongqing Tongliang Long win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 11 matches this season, and in as many as 60% of their last five fixtures. The opening period should be relatively even: both teams average just 0.55 and 0.45 goals before half-time, respectively, while over their last five matches each has scored 0.6 goals in the first half. After the interval, however, the hosts’ advantage is clear, as they average 1.27 goals scored and only 0.36 conceded, whereas Dalian concede an average of 1.27 goals after the break. Across the season, Chongqing win 73% of their matches and have an average xG of 1.79 compared with the visitors’ 1.35, while Dalian have lost 64% of their fixtures and concede an average of 2.27 goals. The hosts’ weaker current form, with just 0.8 goals scored per match in their last five appearances, reduces confidence in this scenario, but the visitors’ defensive vulnerability still favors a second-half turnaround in the hosts’ favor.