Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns: match statistics

Chongqing Tongliang Long holds a clear statistical advantage: they are 2nd, unbeaten at home this season (0% defeats) and in the last 5 matches have a 3W-2D record, averaging 2.2 points per match in that period, while Wuhan Three Towns sit 13th and in their last 5 have 1W-1D-3L, averaging 0.8 points per match. Offensively the hosts score 2.0 goals per home match, have xG 1.44 and 4.5 shots on target, whereas the visitors record 1.5 goals on the road, xG 1.15 and 3.0 shots on target; in the last 5 matches Chongqing scored 7 goals versus Wuhan’s 8. The biggest gap is in defense: Wuhan concedes 3.0 goals on average away, shipped 14 goals in the last 5 matches and have xG against 1.87, while the hosts concede 1.5 at home, only 3 goals in the last 5 and xG against 1.11, plus 50% clean sheets vs 0% for the visitors. Additionally the hosts control the game with 59% possession vs 45% for the visitors and average 12.5 shots per home match versus Wuhan’s 10, with 4.5 vs 3.0 shots on target, increasing their chance to convert chances; shot conversion is 16% for the hosts vs 15% for the visitors. Considering these figures — notably 2.0 goals at home vs 1.5 away, higher xG and Wuhan’s significantly weaker defense — I predict a home win.

I back BTTS primarily because Wuhan Three Towns has a season BTTS rate of 100% and 80% in the last 5 matches, which is a very strong signal that both sides score in their games. Chongqing Tongliang Long has a season BTTS of 50% and only 20% in the last 5, but in those five matches they averaged 1.4 goals and score 2.0 goals per game over the season, so they have the potential to hit the net. Wuhan concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game this season and as many as 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per game), while scoring 1.6 in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of mutual scoring. xG confirms both teams create chances (attacking xG 1.19 vs 1.15 seasonally and 1.47 vs 1.32 in the last 5), and Wuhan’s xG against is higher (1.87 seasonally, 1.91 in the last 5), so the hosts have genuine opportunities. Additionally, both teams have 0% clean sheets this season, and the league BTTS is 59%, therefore I ultimately rate BTTS as more likely (80% vs 20%).

Based on the last 5 matches I calculated expected xG: home 1.69 ((1.47 + 1.91)/2), away 1.17 ((1.32 + 1.01)/2), totaling 2.86 expected goals. Seasonally, homes score 2.0 goals on average while away sides concede 3.0 on average; the league records 3.19 goals per match — these figures indicate elevated goal potential. In the last 5 matches the away team have conceded 14 goals (2.8 per match), and the home team have scored 7 (1.4 per match), which further supports a multi-goal scenario. Both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated probability ~78%), with Over 2.5 assessed at about 55% and Over 3.5 at about 32%.

Season-long metrics clearly favor the home side: Chongqing scores an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Wuhan concedes an average of 3.0 goals, and the hosts average 1.5 points per match versus the visitors' 0.5. At half-time the home side average 1.0 goal and the visitors 0.0, with Wuhan conceding an average of 1.5 goals before the break — the hosts led at the break in 50% of matches and have 100% of games with at least one goal in the first half. Form supports Chongqing’s advantage: the home side’s last five matches read W D W D W, with a 60% win rate, whereas Wuhan’s form is L L W D L with only a 20% win rate over the last five. Additionally, Wuhan have a 100% season rate of both teams scoring and a high average xG against of 1.87, which suggests the visitors frequently concede and rarely produce a turnaround; therefore the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1).