Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh: match statistics

Livyi Bereh remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while conceding just 2 goals during that period. Chornomorets have won 2 of their last five games but suffered 3 defeats and scored only 3 goals, limiting their attacking potential. At home, the hosts average 1 goal scored and 1 conceded, while Livyi Bereh have drawn 100% of their away matches so far, with an identical 1:1 average scoreline. The visitors’ defense looks promising in terms of the quality of chances allowed, with their average xG against standing at 0.35 compared to Chornomorets’ 1.42, although their own away xG is just 0.13. The visitors’ superior possession, reaching 72% compared to the hosts’ 47%, should help them control the course of the match, but the prevalence of drawn results points primarily to a share of the points.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 20% of Chornomorets’ last 5 matches and 40% of Livyi Bereh’s. During this period, the hosts scored just 0.6 goals per match, while the visitors conceded only 0.4, clearly limiting Chornomorets’ chances of finding the net. The quality of chances created is also not high: average xG stands at 0.81 for the hosts and 0.70 for the visitors, while Livyi Bereh allowed opponents just 0.55 xG. Although the visitors averaged 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, the low league BTTS rate of 36% and an average of 2.11 goals per match support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The match profile points to a limited number of scoring chances: the average xG over the last five matches stands at 0.81 for Chornomorets and 0.70 for Livyi Bereh. The hosts scored only 0.6 goals per match during this period, while their opponents conceded just 0.4 goals, which lowers the forecast for the home side’s attacking output. Livyi Bereh averaged 1.2 goals, but Chornomorets conceded only 1.0 goal per game, so there is likewise little potential for a high-scoring game from the visitors. In the last five matches played by both teams, the Over 2.5 goals line was exceeded in only 20% of cases, while in the season data neither team recorded a match with at least 3 goals. The strongest pick is Under 3.5, as the projected 1.65 goals leaves a clear safety margin against this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Livyi Bereh win at full-time, as Chornomorets were level at the break in 75% of their recent matches, while their average first-half goals scored stands at just 0.25. The visitors are more effective in the first half: they average 0.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded, and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of their last five matches. Across their last five games, Livyi Bereh have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, compared with the hosts’ averages of 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded. The visitors remain unbeaten in this run, recording 60% draws and averaging 1.8 points per match, whereas Chornomorets have lost 60% of their games and average 1.2 points, increasing the likelihood of the visitors completing the turnaround after the break.