Chrobry Głogów vs ŁKS Łódź: match statistics

Chrobry Głogów holds a marginal advantage based on home metrics: at home they average 1.71 goals per game (48 goals this season), have a home goal difference of +10 and win 53% of matches at their stadium, while ŁKS average 1.41 goals on the road and have only a 35% win rate away with an away goal difference of -6. The hosts generate more high-quality chances: 5.29 shots on target and 14.0 total shots per home game versus 3.82 on target and 12.65 total for ŁKS, and the hosts’ xG is 1.70 compared to the visitors’ 1.49 xG away. Defensively Chrobry is stronger at home — they concede 1.12 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 24% of games, whereas ŁKS concedes 1.76 goals away and has only 12% clean sheets. One must however account for the visitors’ form: ŁKS have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches and average 2.0 points per game in that run, versus 7 goals and 1.4 points per game for Chrobry, which increases the probability of goals and a competitive outcome. Considering the hosts’ superiority in chance creation and more stable defense against the visitors’ offensive momentum, I tip a Chrobry win and assess the probabilities as 50% home, 27% draw and 23% away.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Chrobry 59% and ŁKS 71%, against a league average of 64%, providing a strong baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. xG and shot analysis indicate both sides create chances — Chrobry has xG for 1.77 versus xG against from ŁKS 1.48, while ŁKS has xG for 1.49 versus xG against from Chrobry 1.21. The last 5 matches form further supports the ŁKS attack: ŁKS averaged 2.4 goals and xG for 1.83 in their last 5, whereas Chrobry conceded on average 1.6 goals and had xG against 1.83 over the same span. Season averages also favor goals from both teams — Chrobry scores 1.88 goals per game, ŁKS concedes 1.76, and each team fails to score in only 18% of matches, lowering the likelihood of a clean sheet. Considering 59% vs 71% BTTS, xG (Chrobry 1.77 / ŁKS 1.49) and recent form, I assess BTTS at 68% vs 32% and select 'yes' as the strongest signal.

Calculated xG suggests 1.63 expected goals for Chrobry (xG 1.77 vs xG conceded to ŁKS 1.48 → average 1.63) and 1.35 for ŁKS (xG 1.49 vs xG conceded to Chrobry 1.21 → 1.35), totalling 2.98 goals. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Chrobry 82% and ŁKS 88%, therefore I estimate Over 1.5 goals at 86%. Season Over 2.5 shares are 65% (Chrobry) and 71% (ŁKS), and in the last 5 matches ŁKS had Over 2.5 in 80%, so I rate Over 2.5 at 68%. Additionally, 59% of Chrobry’s matches and 71% of ŁKS’s matches feature goals from both teams, and the average shots (15.47 vs 12.65) and shots on target (4.71 vs 3.82) favor a higher-scoring game. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.

Chrobry is noticeably stronger at home: they score on average 1.88 goals per match and concede 1.06, while ŁKS as the away side averages 1.41 scored and 1.76 conceded. This is confirmed by xG — Chrobry has an xG of 1.77 versus ŁKS’s 1.49, and xG against is 1.21 for Chrobry and 1.48 for ŁKS, which suggests a home advantage in chance creation and defense. Chrobry’s edge is particularly pronounced after the break: the hosts score on average 1.29 goals in second halves and concede 0.41, whereas ŁKS scores 0.88 and concedes 0.88; Chrobry wins the second half in 65% of matches and averages 2.18 points from second halves. A draw at Half-Time is common — 29% of the hosts’ matches are level at the break, and in the last five home games Chrobry was level at Half-Time in 80% of cases; therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home victory at Full-Time (X/1).