Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów: match statistics

Both teams have an identical record in their last five matches: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, which equates to 1.4 points per game. Chrobry are still winless at home, scoring just 0.33 goals per match and failing to score in 67% of games, despite creating chances worth an average xG of 1.46. Ruch are slightly more effective away from home, averaging 0.67 goals and recording 33% of matches without scoring, but they also concede an average of 1 goal per game. The hosts enjoy more possession on average, 59% compared with the visitors’ 50%, while Ruch register more shots on target: 2.67 compared with Chrobry’s 2.0. Given the similar defensive quality, the low efficiency of both teams and draws in one-third of their home and away matches, a split of the points is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Chrobry have recorded BTTS in 0% of their home matches this season, compared with just 33% for Ruch. Both teams score few goals in these conditions: the hosts average 0.50 goals, while the visitors average 0.67, with Ruch scoring only 0.6 goals per game across their last five matches. Chrobry have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, whereas Ruch have failed to score in 33% of their away games, clearly increasing the risk of another No Goal outing for the visitors. Although the hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 2.16 xG and 21 shots, they convert just 2% of their attempts into goals, so their attacking output does not automatically support a Goal/Goal scenario. Chrobry's last five matches produced BTTS in 60% of cases, but with Ruch at only 20% and the league average at 53%, it remains more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Both teams have finished all of their league matches to date with fewer than 2.5 goals, as well as fewer than 3.5 goals, which is a very strong signal for a low-scoring game. Chrobry score an average of just 0.50 goals, while Ruch score 0.67, with each team conceding 1.00 goal per match. In their last five appearances, the hosts have scored 1.6 goals, but Ruch have managed only 0.6, and the visitors' matches have not exceeded the 2.5-goal line even once. Chrobry have the greater attacking potential, as the hosts average 21.0 shots and have an xG of 2.16, but they convert just 2% of their attempts, which limits the risk of a high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.20 goals points towards Under 3.5 goals, as losing this bet requires at least four goals, something the data for both teams has not supported so far.

The strongest signal for the first half is a draw: Chrobry were level at half-time in 100% of their home matches so far, while Ruch were level in 67% of their away fixtures and 80% of their last five matches. The hosts have yet to concede before the break at home, whereas Ruch have averaged just 0.33 goals before half-time away from home and 0.20 across their last five appearances. After the break, Chrobry’s advantage should increase, as they have averaged 1.0 goal in the second half over their last five matches, while Ruch have conceded an average of 1.0 goal during that period. A home win in the second half is also supported by their clearly superior chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.16 compared with Ruch’s 1.32, while their average number of shots is 21.0 versus 11.33.