Cliftonville vs Dungannon Swifts: match statistics

Dungannon Swifts are in slightly better current form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while Cliftonville have won 2 and lost 3. The visitors are yet to concede away from home, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their matches and allowing opponents just 0.99 xG, which is a clear contrast to the 1.52 xG conceded by Cliftonville at home. Dungannon’s attack produces an average of 1.69 xG away from home and registers 7 shots on target per match, compared with the hosts’ 1.40 xG and 6 shots on target. Cliftonville have the advantage in possession at 61% and score an average of 2 goals at home, but their lack of clean sheets and weaker recent form increase the visitors’ chances of success, given their superior defensive efficiency.

The signal for both sides to score is primarily driven by current form: in their last 5 matches, both Cliftonville and Dungannon Swifts recorded BTTS in 60% of games. During this period, both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored per match, while Cliftonville conceded 1.8 goals per game and Dungannon Swifts 1.4. The hosts have a high average xG against them of 2.03, while the visitors create an average of 1.69 xG and produce as many as 7.0 shots on target per match. On the other hand, Dungannon Swifts kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches so far, which clearly lowers confidence in the pick. Although the league BTTS rate is only 38%, the current offensive and defensive numbers of both teams give a slight edge to the scenario in which each team scores at least once.

The last five matches for both teams produced an average of 1.4 goals scored, while Cliftonville conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game during this period. Cliftonville’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five outings, compared with 60% for Dungannon Swifts, while both teams scored in 60% of matches for each side. The visitors generate a solid volume of chances, averaging 14 shots and 7 on target, with a season xG of 1.69. At the same time, Dungannon’s defense kept clean sheets in both of their league matches so far, which reduces confidence in Over 2.5 despite the high tempo shown in their recent form. The strongest selection is therefore Over 1.5, as both teams scored at least one goal in 100% of their matches so far, while the projected 2.45 goals clearly supports a minimum of two goals.

Dungannon Swifts have started the season with maximum points, winning 100% of their matches and yet to concede a goal, while Cliftonville average 1.5 goals scored and concede the same number. The visitors have a clearly stronger chance-creation profile: their average xG stands at 1.69 compared with the hosts’ 1.58, while Cliftonville allow opponents an xG as high as 2.03, compared with just 0.99 for Dungannon. In the current data, Dungannon led at the break in 100% of their matches and scored an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, whereas the hosts were trailing after 45 minutes in 50% of their games. The last five matches have been more evenly balanced, but Dungannon won 60% of them compared with Cliftonville’s 40%, so the most likely scenario remains a Dungannon lead at half-time followed by an away win at full-time: HT/FT 2/2.