Club Atlético Mitre vs Club Atlético Güemes: match statistics

Club Atlético Mitre head into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat in their last five fixtures, while Club Atlético Güemes have lost all five matches during that period, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 12. At home, the hosts average 1.17 goals scored with an xG of 1.43, whereas away from home, the visitors allow opponents an average of 2.18 goals and 1.69 xG. Mitre also have a clearly more solid defense: they concede 1.08 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 42% of their games, while Güemes have failed to keep a single clean sheet away from home. Mitre’s advantage is also reflected in their home results, with 42% of matches ending in victory, compared to Güemes’ mere 9% away-win rate. The visitors average just 8.45 shots per away match and score 0.82 goals per game, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The “No” pick is primarily supported by Güemes’ poor recent attacking form, having scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches—an average of 0.4 per game—and lost all five fixtures. Over the same period, Mitre conceded just 0.8 goals per match, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of their last five games. Although Güemes’ season-long rate of matches in which both teams scored is high at 73%, Mitre’s stands at 50%, compared with a league-wide average of just 41%. The home side should have good opportunities to score against a visiting defense that has conceded 2.4 goals per game in its last five league rounds, but this does not simultaneously make an away goal reliable. A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is therefore more likely than a Goal/Goal outcome.

The league profile favors low-scoring outcomes: the average is only 1.93 goals, while the 3.5-goal line has been exceeded in just 25% of Mitre’s matches and 18% of Güemes’ games. Mitre have conceded only 4 goals in their last five rounds, while Güemes have scored just 2 goals during that period, averaging 0.4 per match. The hosts do, however, have a favorable matchup against a visiting defense that concedes an average of 2.18 goals, with xG against at 1.69, which puts Mitre’s expected goals at 1.48. Even despite Güemes’ defensive weakness, both teams very rarely score more than 2 goals in a match, and their combined expected goals total is 2.16. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as a scenario with at least four goals would require a result clearly above both the league profile and the teams’ seasonal scoring patterns.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Mitre win at the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 58% of their matches and in 60% of their last five games. Güemes were trailing at half-time in 64% of their appearances, while Mitre concede just 0.50 goals per match before the break, compared with the visitors’ average of only 0.36 goals scored in this phase. After the interval, the hosts’ superior form is clear: Mitre have conceded no second-half goals in their last five matches, whereas Güemes conceded an average of 1.60 goals after the break and lost all five of their last games. The full-season results also support a home win: Mitre average 1.17 points per match compared with Güemes’ 0.45, while the visitors concede as many as 2.18 goals per game.