CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat: match statistics

FAR Rabat holds a clear offensive and goalscoring advantage: 43 goals this season versus 20 for CODM, with average xG 1.68 (FAR) vs 1.12 (CODM). In the last five matches FAR scored 9 goals, recording 2 wins and 3 draws (0 losses) and averaging 1.8 points per game, whereas CODM managed only 4 goals in their last five, with no wins (0-2-3) and 0.4 points per game. The visitors create more chances: on the road they average 12.07 shots and 4.36 on target per match compared to the hosts’ 9.07 shots and 2.79 on target, and FAR’s 58% possession vs 50% also favors them. At the same time CODM defend well at home — only 0.64 goals conceded per match and 57% clean sheets — which may limit the margin of defeat. Considering FAR’s superiority in chance volume, xG and goalscoring record and CODM’s poor form (0 wins in last 5), I tip the visitors to win; I assess probabilities at roughly 60% for FAR, 25% for a draw and 15% for the hosts.

I back BTTS - Yes because in the last 5 matches CODM has 60% BTTS and FAR 80%, indicating strong form from both sides. Both teams generate xG of 1.53 (CODM) and 1.68 (FAR) with xG against of 0.95 and 1.05 respectively, suggesting they create and concede scoring chances. Average shots on target 4.21 vs 4.36 and total shots 11.79 vs 12.07 confirm real attacking potential, while conversion rates of 15% vs 11% translate into actual goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the home side scored 4 goals (0.8 per game) and the away side 9 goals (1.8 per game) while conceding 8 (1.6) and 6 (1.2), so the risk of Goal/Goal is high despite seasonal BTTS at 50% and league BTTS at 52%.

Seasonal metrics indicate CODM Meknès matches finished Over 1.5 goals in 79% of cases, while FAR Rabat matches did so in 64% (average 71.5%), providing a strong signal for Over 1.5. Based on xG I expect 1.30 goals for the home side (xG for 1.53 vs opponent xG against 1.05) and 1.31 for the away side (xG for 1.68 vs xG against 0.95), a total of 2.61 expected goals. In the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of fixtures Over 2.5 goals, but season-long Over 2.5 is 50% for the home team and 43% for the away team (average 46.5%), so I rate the 2.5 line as moderately favoring Over (~56%). The 3.5 line is unlikely — season Over 3.5 is only 14% (home) and 29% (away), average ~21.5%, therefore Under 3.5 is the clear choice.

I back X/1 — draw at Half-Time, CODM Meknès to win Full-Time. Hosts average 1.71 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per match, while FAR Rabat average 1.36 scored and 0.71 conceded; additionally hosts average 2.29 points per match versus 1.57 for visitors and have won 64% of matches compared to 29% for their opponents. Matches are typically low-scoring at the break: hosts average 0.57 goals by Half-Time versus 0.64 for visitors; hosts were level at HT in 7 of 14 matches (50%) and led in 4 of 14 (29%), which increases the likelihood of a draw at Half-Time. Second halves favor the hosts — CODM average 1.14 goals after the break versus 0.71 for FAR, 86% of the hosts’ matches see at least 0.5 goals in the second half (vs 56% for visitors) and hosts won 64% of second halves versus 28% for opponents; additionally the hosts scored 7 goals in minutes 46–60 (guests 3). Considering the ~50% probability of a draw at HT and the clear home advantage after the break (1.14 vs 0.71 and 64% second-half success), the X/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario is assigned the highest probability (~33%).