Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago: match statistics

Colegiales have a clear home advantage: they win 64% of their matches, score an average of 1.57 goals, and concede just 0.64 per game. Nueva Chicago score only 0.43 goals away from home, fail to score in 71% of their away fixtures, and lose as many as 71% of those matches. The hosts also create better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.49 compared with the visitors’ 1.02, while their opponents allow an xG of 1.52. Recent form also favors Colegiales, who have collected 7 points from their last five matches, whereas Nueva Chicago have lost 4 of their last 5 games and scored just one goal across them. The hosts’ solid defense, which keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, should contain the visitors’ weak attack and tilt the result in Colegiales’ favor.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Nueva Chicago’s very limited attacking output: the visitors score an average of only 0.43 goals per match, and have scored just 1 goal in their last five games, or 0.2 per appearance. Nueva Chicago failed to score in 71% of their matches this season, while their BTTS rate stands at just 14%, well below Colegiales’ 43% and the league average of 40%. Colegiales keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while their opponents average only 2.43 shots on target and convert 5% of their attempts. The hosts are not particularly prolific either, averaging just 0.8 goals across their last five games, which further supports the scenario in which at least one team fails to score. The low percentage of matches with over 2.5 goals—29% for Colegiales and 21% for the visitors—reinforces expectations of a tight, low-scoring encounter.

The match profile clearly points to a limited number of goals: 86% of Colegiales’ matches and as many as 93% of Nueva Chicago’s fixtures this season have finished with fewer than 3.5 goals. The visitors score just 0.43 goals per match on average, and have scored only 1 goal in their last five appearances, or 0.2 per game. Colegiales create more chances, recording an average xG of 1.48 and 4.21 shots on target, but their average goal tally is only 1.07. In addition, Nueva Chicago have failed to score in 71% of their matches, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of games. The projected total of 1.72 goals provides a very strong edge towards the Under 3.5 goals outcome.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Colegiales were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches and Nueva Chicago in 43%, with averages of just 0.93 and 0.79 goals scored in the first halves, respectively. The visitors have exceptionally poor attacking output before the break: they score only 0.07 goals per match, failed to score in the first half in 93% of their appearances, and averaged just 0.2 goals in their last five matches. After the interval, the home side’s advantage should increase, as they average 0.64 goals in the second half and have not lost any second-half period, while their opponents lost this part of the match in 43% of cases. Colegiales are also favoured to secure the full-time victory by their higher xG, 1.48 compared with 1.02, as well as the visitors’ significantly poorer league record: Nueva Chicago have lost 71% of their matches and score only 0.43 goals per game on average.