Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution: match statistics

Columbus Crew have a clear edge at home: they win 40% of their home matches, while New England Revolution win just 22% of their away games and lose as many as 56%. At their own stadium, the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.46 xG while averaging 58% possession, whereas away opponents allow 1.64 xG and concede an average of 1.67 goals. Columbus score 1.30 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 30% of games, while New England record a clean sheet in only 11% of their away fixtures. Neither side has been convincing recently, with Columbus taking 4 points from their last five matches and New England 5, although the visitors have scored 7 goals in that period compared with 10 conceded by the hosts. Despite Revolution’s superior overall season record, Columbus’ advantage in match control and the visitors’ defensive vulnerability away from home point to a narrow home win.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is clear, as Columbus recorded both teams scoring in 100% of their last 5 matches, while New England did so in 60% of such games. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match, whereas the visitors scored an average of 1.4 goals and created chances worth 1.92 xG. New England has kept a clean sheet in only 11% of its matches this season, which supports the likelihood of a Columbus goal, with the hosts averaging 1.83 goals at home. The visitors’ season BTTS rate is also 67%, above the league average of 63%, while both teams register a similar number of shots on target: 4.50 for Columbus and 4.33 for New England per match. The possibility of a No Goal outcome is increased by Columbus’s stronger season-long defense, conceding an average of 0.92 goals; however, the hosts’ recent run clearly weakens this argument.

Columbus score an average of 1.83 goals at home, while New England concede 1.67 away from home, clearly supporting the home side to score. The visitors create an average of 1.48 xG per match, almost identical to the 1.50 xG Columbus allow their opponents, making a New England goal a realistic scenario as well. In their last five matches, Columbus conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game, while both teams scored 7 goals during this period. The 1.5 line was covered in 75% of Columbus matches and 78% of New England matches, with the league average standing at 3.19 goals, so Over 1.5 has the strongest support in the data. Recent form also increases the potential for a higher-scoring game, as Over 2.5 occurred in 80% of Columbus’s last five matches and in 60% of New England’s matches.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Columbus Crew win, as the hosts were level at the break in 33% of their matches, while New England went into half-time trailing in as many as 56% of games. However, the first half may not produce a clear Columbus advantage: the hosts average 0.75 goals before the break, compared with 0.56 for the visitors, while recording clean sheets in 42% and 44% of matches respectively during this phase. After the interval, Columbus’s advantage becomes far more pronounced: the team averages 1.08 goals scored and concedes only 0.25, whereas New England scores 0.67 and concedes 0.67. Across the season, Columbus have won 67% of their matches and average 2.17 points per game, while New England have lost 56% of their fixtures and average just 0.89 points, supporting a post-break turnaround in favor of the hosts.